Tropical Atlantic multidecadal variability is dominated by external forcing.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان:	Tropical Atlantic multidecadal variability is dominated by external forcing.
المؤلفون:	He C; Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA. cxh1079@miami.edu., Clement AC; Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA., Kramer SM; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA., Cane MA; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA., Klavans JM; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA., Fenske TM; Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA., Murphy LN; Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA.
المصدر:	Nature [Nature] 2023 Oct; Vol. 622 (7983), pp. 521-527. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Sep 13.
نوع المنشور:	Journal Article
اللغة:	English
بيانات الدورية:	Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 0410462 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1476-4687 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00280836 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Nature Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة:	Publication: Basingstoke : Nature Publishing Group Original Publication: London, Macmillan Journals ltd.
مواضيع طبية MeSH:	Models, Theoretical* , Temperature* , Tropical Climate*, Aerosols ; Air Movements ; Atlantic Ocean ; Cyclonic Storms ; History, 20th Century ; Human Activities ; Rain ; Uncertainty ; Volcanic Eruptions
مستخلص:	The tropical Atlantic climate is characterized by prominent and correlated multidecadal variability in Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), Sahel rainfall and hurricane activity ^1-4 . Owing to uncertainties in both the models and the observations, the origin of the physical relationships among these systems has remained controversial ^3-7 . Here we show that the cross-equatorial gradient in tropical Atlantic SSTs-largely driven by radiative perturbations associated with anthropogenic emissions and volcanic aerosols since 1950 ^3,7 -is a key determinant of Atlantic hurricane formation and Sahel rainfall. The relationship is obscured in a large ensemble of CMIP6 Earth system models, because the models overestimate long-term trends for warming in the Northern Hemisphere relative to the Southern Hemisphere from around 1950 as well as associated changes in atmospheric circulation and rainfall. When the overestimated trends are removed, correlations between SSTs and Atlantic hurricane formation and Sahel rainfall emerge as a response to radiative forcing, especially since 1950 when anthropogenic aerosol forcing has been high. Our findings establish that the tropical Atlantic SST gradient is a stronger determinant of tropical impacts than SSTs across the entire North Atlantic, because the gradient is more physically connected to tropical impacts via local atmospheric circulations ⁸ . Our findings highlight that Atlantic hurricane activity and Sahel rainfall variations can be predicted from radiative forcing driven by anthropogenic emissions and volcanism, but firmer predictions are limited by the signal-to-noise paradox ^9-11 and uncertainty in future climate forcings. (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)
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المشرفين على المادة:	0 (Aerosols)
تواريخ الأحداث:	Date Created: 20230913 Date Completed: 20231025 Latest Revision: 20231025
رمز التحديث:	20231215
DOI:	10.1038/s41586-023-06489-4
PMID:	37704729
قاعدة البيانات:	MEDLINE

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تدمد:	1476-4687
DOI:	10.1038/s41586-023-06489-4