دورية أكاديمية
Climate risks and vulnerabilities of the Arabica coffee in Brazil under current and future climates considering new CMIP6 models.
| العنوان: | Climate risks and vulnerabilities of the Arabica coffee in Brazil under current and future climates considering new CMIP6 models. |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Dias CG; Federal University of Itajubá - Natural Resource Institute, C.P. 50, 37500-903 Itajubá, MG, Brazil. Electronic address: cassiadias@unifei.edu.br., Martins FB; Federal University of Itajubá - Natural Resource Institute, C.P. 50, 37500-903 Itajubá, MG, Brazil. Electronic address: fabrina@unifei.edu.br., Martins MA; National Institute for Space Research - Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Division, C.P. 515, 12227-010 São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil. Electronic address: minella.martins@inpe.com. |
| المصدر: | The Science of the total environment [Sci Total Environ] 2024 Jan 10; Vol. 907, pp. 167753. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Oct 11. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: Elsevier Country of Publication: Netherlands NLM ID: 0330500 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1879-1026 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00489697 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Sci Total Environ Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: Amsterdam, Elsevier. |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Coffea* , Basidiomycota*, Brazil ; Agriculture ; Climate Change ; Crops, Agricultural |
| مستخلص: | The susceptibility to climate change concerns the coffee market worldwide due to possible severe productivity losses. Brazil is the world's largest Arabica coffee producer and has crops in regions considered persistent climate change hotspots. Our study analyzed risks, vulnerabilities, and susceptibilities to pests and diseases in these regions under current and future climates and outlined adaptive measures to reduce future vulnerabilities. Ten risk indicators based on Arabica coffee requirements were proposed: water supply (Iw), base (TIB) and maximum temperature stresses (TImax), which delimit the temperature range where Arabica coffee grows and productivity is penalized outside both ranges, frost stress (TIfrost), diseases such as rust (DIrust), brown eye spot (DIbrown), and Phoma leaf spot (DIphoma), pests such as coffee berry borer (PIberry), coffee leaf miner (PIminer), and yield loss due to water stress (Iyg). Daily near-surface air temperature (minimum, mean, and maximum), relative humidity, precipitation, and global solar radiation were used from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), which are derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585). All risk indicators were calculated for the current climate (1995-2014) and projected for the near (2041-2060), intermediate (2061-2080), and far future (2081-2100) in three SSPs and then classified into five risk classes (very low, low, moderate, high and very high). Our results indicated that due to increases in TImax and Iyg indicators, with high to very high risk in area and magnitude, Arabica coffee plantations will be negatively affected and economically unfeasible for about 35 % to 75 % of the studied area throughout the 21st century. Furthermore, the rust and the leaf miner will remain a concern in future climates due to increased temperatures and reduced relative humidity. The future of Arabica coffee crops in Brazil will depend on adopting effective adaptive measures and prudent agricultural strategies to address anticipated risks, including shifting crops to higher altitude areas, introducing more climate-resilient coffee cultivars/varieties, using agroforestry or intercropping systems, planting in closer spacing or higher density planting, and employing dripper or partial root-zone irrigation techniques. Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest Not applicable. (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.) |
| فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: Adaptation measures; Coffea arabica L.; Coffee diseases; Coffee pests; NEX-GDDP-CMIP6; Risk indicators |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20231013 Date Completed: 20231122 Latest Revision: 20231122 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20231122 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167753 |
| PMID: | 37832692 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 1879-1026 |
|---|---|
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167753 |