دورية أكاديمية
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Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes.
المؤلفون: Brodie S; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA. steph.brodie@csiro.au.; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA. steph.brodie@csiro.au.; Environment, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. steph.brodie@csiro.au., Pozo Buil M; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA.; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA., Welch H; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA.; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA., Bograd SJ; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA.; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA., Hazen EL; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA.; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA., Santora JA; Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.; Department of Applied Math, University of California, 1156, Santa Cruz, CA, USA., Seary R; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA.; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA.; Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, CA, USA., Schroeder ID; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA.; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA., Jacox MG; Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Monterey, CA, USA.; Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, CA, USA.; Physical Sciences Laboratory, Earth System Research Laboratories, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, USA.
المصدر: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2023 Dec 05; Vol. 14 (1), pp. 7701. Date of Electronic Publication: 2023 Dec 05.
نوع المنشور: Journal Article
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Nature Pub. Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101528555 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2041-1723 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20411723 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Nat Commun Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Original Publication: [London] : Nature Pub. Group
مواضيع طبية MeSH: Ecosystem* , Climate*, Humans ; Weather ; Temperature ; Forecasting ; Climate Change
مستخلص: Forecasting weather has become commonplace, but as society faces novel and uncertain environmental conditions there is a critical need to forecast ecology. Forewarning of ecosystem conditions during climate extremes can support proactive decision-making, yet applications of ecological forecasts are still limited. We showcase the capacity for existing marine management tools to transition to a forecasting configuration and provide skilful ecological forecasts up to 12 months in advance. The management tools use ocean temperature anomalies to help mitigate whale entanglements and sea turtle bycatch, and we show that forecasts can forewarn of human-wildlife interactions caused by unprecedented climate extremes. We further show that regionally downscaled forecasts are not a necessity for ecological forecasting and can be less skilful than global forecasts if they have fewer ensemble members. Our results highlight capacity for ecological forecasts to be explored for regions without the infrastructure or capacity to regionally downscale, ultimately helping to improve marine resource management and climate adaptation globally.
(© 2023. The Author(s).)
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معلومات مُعتمدة: NA17OAR4310108 United States Department of Commerce | NOAA | Climate Program Office (NOAA Climate Program Office)
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20231205 Date Completed: 20231207 Latest Revision: 20231208
رمز التحديث: 20231215
مُعرف محوري في PubMed: PMC10698027
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43188-0
PMID: 38052808
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:2041-1723
DOI:10.1038/s41467-023-43188-0