دورية أكاديمية
Academics are more specific, and practitioners more sensitive, in forecasting interventions to strengthen democratic attitudes.
| العنوان: | Academics are more specific, and practitioners more sensitive, in forecasting interventions to strengthen democratic attitudes. |
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| المؤلفون: | Chu JY; Department of Sociology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027., Voelkel JG; Department of Sociology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305., Stagnaro MN; Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139., Kang S; Perry World House, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104., Druckman JN; Department of Political Science, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627., Rand DG; Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139., Willer R; Department of Sociology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305. |
| المصدر: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A] 2024 Jan 16; Vol. 121 (3), pp. e2307008121. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jan 12. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: National Academy of Sciences Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 7505876 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1091-6490 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00278424 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: Washington, DC : National Academy of Sciences |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Social Problems*, United States ; Forecasting |
| مستخلص: | Concern over democratic erosion has led to a proliferation of proposed interventions to strengthen democratic attitudes in the United States. Resource constraints, however, prevent implementing all proposed interventions. One approach to identify promising interventions entails leveraging domain experts, who have knowledge regarding a given field, to forecast the effectiveness of candidate interventions. We recruit experts who develop general knowledge about a social problem (academics), experts who directly intervene on the problem (practitioners), and nonexperts from the public to forecast the effectiveness of interventions to reduce partisan animosity, support for undemocratic practices, and support for partisan violence. Comparing 14,076 forecasts submitted by 1,181 forecasters against the results of a megaexperiment (n = 32,059) that tested 75 hypothesized effects of interventions, we find that both types of experts outperformed members of the public, though experts differed in how they were accurate. While academics' predictions were more specific (i.e., they identified a larger proportion of ineffective interventions and had fewer false-positive forecasts), practitioners' predictions were more sensitive (i.e., they identified a larger proportion of effective interventions and had fewer false-negative forecasts). Consistent with this, practitioners were better at predicting best-performing interventions, while academics were superior in predicting which interventions performed worst. Our paper highlights the importance of differentiating types of experts and types of accuracy. We conclude by discussing factors that affect whether sensitive or specific forecasters are preferable, such as the relative cost of false positives and negatives and the expected rate of intervention success. Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest. |
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| فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: behavioral interventions; expertise; forecasting |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20240112 Date Completed: 20240115 Latest Revision: 20240124 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240124 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC10801850 |
| DOI: | 10.1073/pnas.2307008121 |
| PMID: | 38215187 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
| تدمد: | 1091-6490 |
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| DOI: | 10.1073/pnas.2307008121 |