دورية أكاديمية
Enabling countries to manage outbreaks: statistical, operational, and contextual analysis of the early warning and response system (EWARS-csd) for dengue outbreaks.
| العنوان: | Enabling countries to manage outbreaks: statistical, operational, and contextual analysis of the early warning and response system (EWARS-csd) for dengue outbreaks. |
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| المؤلفون: | Schlesinger M; Global Health Research Group, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, Gothenburg University, Gothenburg, Sweden., Prieto Alvarado FE; Directorate of Surveillance and Risk Analysis in Public Health, Instituto Nacional de Salud (INS) de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia., Borbón Ramos ME; Directorate of Surveillance and Risk Analysis in Public Health, Instituto Nacional de Salud (INS) de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia., Sewe MO; Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden., Merle CS; Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR-WHO), World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland., Kroeger A; Freiburg University, Center for Medicine, and Society (ZMG)/Institute of Infection Prevention, Freiburg, Germany., Hussain-Alkhateeb L; Global Health Research Group, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, Gothenburg University, Gothenburg, Sweden.; Population Health Research Section, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center (KAIMRC), King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences (KSAU-HS), Ministry of National Guard - Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. |
| المصدر: | Frontiers in public health [Front Public Health] 2024 Jan 19; Vol. 12, pp. 1323618. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jan 19 (Print Publication: 2024). |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: Frontiers Editorial Office Country of Publication: Switzerland NLM ID: 101616579 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2296-2565 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 22962565 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Front Public Health Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: Lausanne : Frontiers Editorial Office |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Dengue*/epidemiology, Animals ; Bayes Theorem ; Retrospective Studies ; Temperature ; Disease Outbreaks |
| مستخلص: | Introduction: Dengue is currently the fastest-spreading mosquito-borne viral illness in the world, with over half of the world's population living in areas at risk of dengue. As dengue continues to spread and become more of a health burden, it is essential to have tools that can predict when and where outbreaks might occur to better prepare vector control operations and communities' responses. One such predictive tool, the Early Warning and Response System for climate-sensitive diseases (EWARS-csd), primarily uses climatic data to alert health systems of outbreaks weeks before they occur. EWARS-csd uses the robust Distribution Lag Non-linear Model in combination with the INLA Bayesian regression framework to predict outbreaks, utilizing historical data. This study seeks to validate the tool's performance in two states of Colombia, evaluating how well the tool performed in 11 municipalities of varying dengue endemicity levels. Methods: The validation study used retrospective data with alarm indicators (mean temperature and rain sum) and an outbreak indicator (weekly hospitalizations) from 11 municipalities spanning two states in Colombia from 2015 to 2020. Calibrations of different variables were performed to find the optimal sensitivity and positive predictive value for each municipality. Results: The study demonstrated that the tool produced overall reliable early outbreak alarms. The median of the most optimal calibration for each municipality was very high: sensitivity (97%), specificity (94%), positive predictive value (75%), and negative predictive value (99%; 95% CI). Discussion: The tool worked well across all population sizes and all endemicity levels but had slightly poorer results in the highly endemic municipality at predicting non-outbreak weeks. Migration and/or socioeconomic status are factors that might impact predictive performance and should be further evaluated. Overall EWARS-csd performed very well, providing evidence that it should continue to be implemented in Colombia and other countries for outbreak prediction. Competing Interests: CM is currently a staff member of the World Health Organization; the author alone is responsible for the views expressed in this publication and they do not necessarily represent the decisions, policies, or views of the WHO. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. (Copyright © 2024 Schlesinger, Prieto Alvarado, Borbón Ramos, Sewe, Merle, Kroeger and Hussain-Alkhateeb.) |
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| معلومات مُعتمدة: | 001 International WHO_ World Health Organization |
| فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: Colombia; climate-sensitive diseases; dengue; outbreak prediction; outbreak response; vector-borne disease |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20240205 Date Completed: 20240206 Latest Revision: 20240507 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240507 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC10834665 |
| DOI: | 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1323618 |
| PMID: | 38314090 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 2296-2565 |
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| DOI: | 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1323618 |