دورية أكاديمية
Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe.
| العنوان: | Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe. |
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| المؤلفون: | Erazo D; Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium. diana.erazo.quintero@ulb.be., Grant L; Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium., Ghisbain G; Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.; Laboratory of Zoology, Research Institute for Biosciences, University of Mons, Mons, Belgium., Marini G; Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy., Colón-González FJ; Data for Science and Health, Wellcome Trust, London, UK., Wint W; Environmental Research Group Oxford Ltd, Department of Biology, Mansfield Road, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, UK., Rizzoli A; Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy., Van Bortel W; Unit Entomology, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium.; Outbreak Research team, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium., Vogels CBF; Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA., Grubaugh ND; Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA., Mengel M; Department Transformation Pathways, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany., Frieler K; Department Transformation Pathways, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany., Thiery W; Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium., Dellicour S; Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium. simon.dellicour@ulb.be.; Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory for Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. simon.dellicour@ulb.be. |
| المصدر: | Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2024 Feb 08; Vol. 15 (1), pp. 1196. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Feb 08. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: Nature Pub. Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101528555 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2041-1723 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20411723 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Nat Commun Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: [London] : Nature Pub. Group |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | West Nile virus* , West Nile Fever*/epidemiology , Culicidae*, Animals ; Humans ; Climate Change ; Europe/epidemiology |
| مستخلص: | West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as a potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, a formal evaluation of this causal relationship is lacking. Here, we investigate the extent to which WNV spatial expansion in Europe can be attributed to climate change while accounting for other direct human influences such as land-use and human population changes. To this end, we trained ecological niche models to predict the risk of local WNV circulation leading to human cases to then unravel the isolated effect of climate change by comparing factual simulations to a counterfactual based on the same environmental changes but a counterfactual climate where long-term trends have been removed. Our findings demonstrate a notable increase in the area ecologically suitable for WNV circulation during the period 1901-2019, whereas this area remains largely unchanged in a no-climate-change counterfactual. We show that the drastic increase in the human population at risk of exposure is partly due to historical changes in population density, but that climate change has also been a critical driver behind the heightened risk of WNV circulation in Europe. (© 2024. The Author(s).) |
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| معلومات مُعتمدة: | UL1 TR001863 United States TR NCATS NIH HHS |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20240208 Date Completed: 20240214 Latest Revision: 20240214 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240214 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC10853512 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-024-45290-3 |
| PMID: | 38331945 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
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Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 2041-1723 |
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| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-024-45290-3 |