دورية أكاديمية
Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity.
| العنوان: | Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity. |
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| المؤلفون: | Armour KC; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.; School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195., Proistosescu C; Department of Climate, Meteorology, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61801.; Department of Earth Sciences and Environmental Change, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61801., Dong Y; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309., Hahn LC; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195., Pauling AG; Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, NZ 9016., Jnglin Wills RC; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, CH 8092., Andrews T; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom., Stuecker MF; Department of Oceanography and International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822., Po-Chedley S; Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550., Mitevski I; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027., Forster PM; Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom., Gregory JM; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom.; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6ET, United Kingdom. |
| المصدر: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A] 2024 Mar 19; Vol. 121 (12), pp. e2312093121. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Mar 11. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: National Academy of Sciences Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 7505876 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1091-6490 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00278424 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE; MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: Washington, DC : National Academy of Sciences |
| مستخلص: | The observed rate of global warming since the 1970s has been proposed as a strong constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR)-key metrics of the global climate response to greenhouse-gas forcing. Using CMIP5/6 models, we show that the inter-model relationship between warming and these climate sensitivity metrics (the basis for the constraint) arises from a similarity in transient and equilibrium warming patterns within the models, producing an effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) governing recent warming that is comparable to the value of ECS governing long-term warming under CO[Formula: see text] forcing. However, CMIP5/6 historical simulations do not reproduce observed warming patterns. When driven by observed patterns, even high ECS models produce low EffCS values consistent with the observed global warming rate. The inability of CMIP5/6 models to reproduce observed warming patterns thus results in a bias in the modeled relationship between recent global warming and climate sensitivity. Correcting for this bias means that observed warming is consistent with wide ranges of ECS and TCR extending to higher values than previously recognized. These findings are corroborated by energy balance model simulations and coupled model (CESM1-CAM5) simulations that better replicate observed patterns via tropospheric wind nudging or Antarctic meltwater fluxes. Because CMIP5/6 models fail to simulate observed warming patterns, proposed warming-based constraints on ECS, TCR, and projected global warming are biased low. The results reinforce recent findings that the unique pattern of observed warming has slowed global-mean warming over recent decades and that how the pattern will evolve in the future represents a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest. |
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| معلومات مُعتمدة: | AGS-1752796 NSF; NA20OAR4310391 NOAA; DE-SC0022110 Department of Energy |
| فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: climate dynamics; climate sensitivity; global warming |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20240311 Latest Revision: 20240327 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240327 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC10962993 |
| DOI: | 10.1073/pnas.2312093121 |
| PMID: | 38466843 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
| تدمد: | 1091-6490 |
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| DOI: | 10.1073/pnas.2312093121 |