دورية أكاديمية
Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates.
| العنوان: | Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates. |
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| المؤلفون: | Cooper VT; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Armour KC; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.; School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Hakim GJ; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Tierney JE; Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA., Osman MB; Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK., Proistosescu C; Department of Climate, Meteorology, and Atmospheric Sciences and Department of Earth Sciences and Environmental Change, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA., Dong Y; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA., Burls NJ; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic & Earth Sciences, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA., Andrews T; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK., Amrhein DE; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA., Zhu J; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA., Dong W; Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA., Ming Y; Earth and Environmental Sciences and Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Boston College, Boston, MA, USA., Chmielowiec P; Department of Climate, Meteorology, and Atmospheric Sciences and Department of Earth Sciences and Environmental Change, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA. |
| المصدر: | Science advances [Sci Adv] 2024 Apr 19; Vol. 10 (16), pp. eadk9461. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Apr 17. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101653440 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2375-2548 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 23752548 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Sci Adv Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE; MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: Washington, DC : American Association for the Advancement of Science, [2015]- |
| مستخلص: | Here, we show that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provides a stronger constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the global warming from increasing greenhouse gases, after accounting for temperature patterns. Feedbacks governing ECS depend on spatial patterns of surface temperature ("pattern effects"); hence, using the LGM to constrain future warming requires quantifying how temperature patterns produce different feedbacks during LGM cooling versus modern-day warming. Combining data assimilation reconstructions with atmospheric models, we show that the climate is more sensitive to LGM forcing because ice sheets amplify extratropical cooling where feedbacks are destabilizing. Accounting for LGM pattern effects yields a median modern-day ECS of 2.4°C, 66% range 1.7° to 3.5°C (1.4° to 5.0°C, 5 to 95%), from LGM evidence alone. Combining the LGM with other lines of evidence, the best estimate becomes 2.9°C, 66% range 2.4° to 3.5°C (2.1° to 4.1°C, 5 to 95%), substantially narrowing uncertainty compared to recent assessments. |
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| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20240417 Latest Revision: 20240425 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240425 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC11023557 |
| DOI: | 10.1126/sciadv.adk9461 |
| PMID: | 38630811 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 2375-2548 |
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| DOI: | 10.1126/sciadv.adk9461 |