دورية أكاديمية
Strategic choices of migrants and smugglers in the Central Mediterranean sea.
| العنوان: | Strategic choices of migrants and smugglers in the Central Mediterranean sea. |
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| المؤلفون: | Hoffmann Pham K; Department of Technology, Operations, and Statistics, NYU Stern School of Business, New York, NY, United States of America., Komiyama J; Department of Technology, Operations, and Statistics, NYU Stern School of Business, New York, NY, United States of America. |
| المصدر: | PloS one [PLoS One] 2024 Apr 19; Vol. 19 (4), pp. e0300553. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Apr 19 (Print Publication: 2024). |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: Public Library of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101285081 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1932-6203 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 19326203 NLM ISO Abbreviation: PLoS One Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Transients and Migrants*, Humans ; Mediterranean Sea ; Europe ; Italy ; Libya |
| مستخلص: | The sea crossing from Libya to Italy is one of the world's most dangerous and politically contentious migration routes, and yet over half a million people have attempted the crossing since 2014. Leveraging data on aggregate migration flows and individual migration incidents, we estimate how migrants and smugglers have reacted to changes in the border enforcement regime, namely the rise in interceptions by the Libyan Coast Guard starting in 2017 and the corresponding decrease in the probability of rescue to Europe. We find support for a deterrence effect in which attempted crossings along the Central Mediterranean route declined, and a diversion effect in which some migrants substituted to the Western Mediterranean route. At the same time, smugglers adapted their tactics. Using a strategic model of the smuggler's choice of boat size, we estimate how smugglers trade off between the short-run payoffs to launching overcrowded boats and the long-run costs of making less successful crossing attempts under different levels of enforcement. Taken together, these analyses shed light on how the integration of incident- and flow-level datasets can inform ongoing migration policy debates and identify potential consequences of changing enforcement regimes. Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. (Copyright: © 2024 Hoffmann Pham, Komiyama. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.) |
| References: | Int Migr. 1997;35(4):467-94. (PMID: 12293038) PLoS One. 2020 Jul 31;15(7):e0236646. (PMID: 32735571) |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20240419 Date Completed: 20240422 Latest Revision: 20240422 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240422 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC11029657 |
| DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pone.0300553 |
| PMID: | 38640124 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 1932-6203 |
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| DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pone.0300553 |