دورية أكاديمية
Scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men: a modelling study based on cross-sectional seroprevalence data from the Netherlands, 2022.
| العنوان: | Scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men: a modelling study based on cross-sectional seroprevalence data from the Netherlands, 2022. |
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| المؤلفون: | Shamier MC; Department of Viroscience, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands., Zaeck LM; Department of Viroscience, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands., Götz HM; Department of Public Health, Municipal Public Health Service Rotterdam-Rijnmond, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.; Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands., Vieyra B; Department of Public Health, Municipal Public Health Service Rotterdam-Rijnmond, Rotterdam, the Netherlands., Verstrepen BE; Department of Viroscience, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands., Wijnans K; Department of Viroscience, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands., Welkers MR; Department of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Service Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.; Amsterdam UMC location AMC, University of Amsterdam, Department of Medical Microbiology and Infection Prevention, Amsterdam, the Netherlands., Hoornenborg E; Department of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Service Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.; Amsterdam UMC location AMC, University of Amsterdam, Department of Medical Microbiology and Infection Prevention, Amsterdam, the Netherlands., van Cleef BA; Department of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Service Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands., van Royen ME; Department of Pathology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands., Jonas KJ; Faculty of Psychology and Neuroscience, Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands., Koopmans MP; Department of Viroscience, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands., de Vries RD; Department of Viroscience, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands., van de Vijver DA; Department of Viroscience, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands., GeurtsvanKessel CH; Department of Viroscience, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands. |
| المصدر: | Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin [Euro Surveill] 2024 Apr; Vol. 29 (17). |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) Country of Publication: Sweden NLM ID: 100887452 Publication Model: Print Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1560-7917 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 1025496X NLM ISO Abbreviation: Euro Surveill Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Publication: Stockholm, Sweden : European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) Original Publication: Saint-Maurice : Hôpital national de Saint-Maurice |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Disease Outbreaks* , Homosexuality, Male*/statistics & numerical data, Humans ; Male ; Netherlands/epidemiology ; Seroepidemiologic Studies ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Vaccinia/epidemiology ; Antibodies, Viral/blood ; Vaccination/statistics & numerical data ; Young Adult ; Models, Theoretical ; Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay ; Immunoglobulin G/blood |
| مستخلص: | BackgroundFollowing the 2022-2023 mpox outbreak, crucial knowledge gaps exist regarding orthopoxvirus-specific immunity in risk groups and its impact on future outbreaks.AimWe combined cross-sectional seroprevalence studies in two cities in the Netherlands with mathematical modelling to evaluate scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men (MSM).MethodsSerum samples were obtained from 1,065 MSM attending Centres for Sexual Health (CSH) in Rotterdam or Amsterdam following the peak of the Dutch mpox outbreak and the introduction of vaccination. For MSM visiting the Rotterdam CSH, sera were linked to epidemiological and vaccination data. An in-house developed ELISA was used to detect vaccinia virus (VACV)-specific IgG. These observations were combined with published data on serial interval and vaccine effectiveness to inform a stochastic transmission model that estimates the risk of future mpox outbreaks.ResultsThe seroprevalence of VACV-specific antibodies was 45.4% and 47.1% in Rotterdam and Amsterdam, respectively. Transmission modelling showed that the impact of risk group vaccination on the original outbreak was likely small. However, assuming different scenarios, the number of mpox cases in a future outbreak would be markedly reduced because of vaccination. Simultaneously, the current level of immunity alone may not prevent future outbreaks. Maintaining a short time-to-diagnosis is a key component of any strategy to prevent new outbreaks.ConclusionOur findings indicate a reduced likelihood of large future mpox outbreaks among MSM in the Netherlands under current conditions, but emphasise the importance of maintaining population immunity, diagnostic capacities and disease awareness. |
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| فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: antibodies; monkeypox virus; mpox; outbreak preparedness; serosurveillance; transmission model |
| المشرفين على المادة: | 0 (Antibodies, Viral) 0 (Immunoglobulin G) |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20240426 Date Completed: 20240426 Latest Revision: 20240805 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240805 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC11063670 |
| DOI: | 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2024.29.17.2300532 |
| PMID: | 38666400 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 1560-7917 |
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| DOI: | 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2024.29.17.2300532 |