دورية أكاديمية
أعرض في EDS

Trends in SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold (Ct) values from nucleic acid testing predict the trajectory of COVID-19 waves.

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Trends in SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold (Ct) values from nucleic acid testing predict the trajectory of COVID-19 waves.
المؤلفون: Ahuja V; NSW Health Pathology - Public Health Pathology, Sydney, NSW, Australia. Electronic address: vishal.ahuja@health.nsw.gov.au., Bowe T; NSW Health Pathology - Data & Insights, Sydney, NSW, Australia., Warnock G; NSW Health Pathology - Point of Care Testing, Sydney, NSW, Australia., Pitman C; NSW Health Pathology - Public Health Pathology, Sydney, NSW, Australia., Dwyer DE; NSW Health Pathology - Public Health Pathology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Sydney Infectious Diseases Institute, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
المصدر: Pathology [Pathology] 2024 Aug; Vol. 56 (5), pp. 710-716. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Apr 06.
نوع المنشور: Journal Article
اللغة: English
بيانات الدورية: Publisher: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 0175411 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1465-3931 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 00313025 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Pathology Subsets: MEDLINE
أسماء مطبوعة: Publication: Jan. 2011- : London : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
Original Publication: [Surry Hills, NSW, etc., Modern Medicine, etc.]
مواضيع طبية MeSH: COVID-19*/diagnosis , COVID-19*/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2* , COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing*/methods, Humans
مستخلص: Forecasting COVID-19 waves helps with public health planning and resource allocation. Cycle threshold (Ct) values obtained from positive SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) results offer limited value for individual patient management, but real-time analysis of temporal trends of aggregated Ct values may provide helpful information to predict the trajectories of COVID-19 waves in the community. Ct value trends on 59,609 SARS-CoV-2 NAAT-positive results from 574,403 tests using a single testing assay system, between September 2021 and January 2023, were examined to monitor the trend of the proportion of positive NAAT with lower Ct values (≤28) in relation to changing COVID-19 case numbers over time. We applied regression with autoregressive integrated moving average errors modelling approach to study the relation between Ct values and case counts. We also developed an insight product to monitor the temporal trends with Ct values obtained from SARS-CoV-2 NAAT-positive results. In this study, the proportion of lower Ct values preceded by a range of 7-32 days the rising population COVID-19 testing rate reflecting onset of a COVID-19 wave. Monitoring population Ct values may assist in predicting increased disease activity.
(Copyright © 2024 Royal College of Pathologists of Australasia. All rights reserved.)
فهرسة مساهمة: Keywords: COVID-19; Ct value; NAAT; SARS-CoV-2
تواريخ الأحداث: Date Created: 20240426 Date Completed: 20240705 Latest Revision: 20240705
رمز التحديث: 20240706
DOI: 10.1016/j.pathol.2024.02.004
PMID: 38670916
قاعدة البيانات: MEDLINE
الوصف
تدمد:1465-3931
DOI:10.1016/j.pathol.2024.02.004