دورية أكاديمية
Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization.
| العنوان: | Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization. |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Shattock AJ; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland; Telethon Kids Institute, Perth, Australia; University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia., Johnson HC; Safinea, London, UK; London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK., Sim SY; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland., Carter A; University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Lambach P; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland., Hutubessy RCW; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland., Thompson KM; Kid Risk, Orlando, FL, USA., Badizadegan K; Kid Risk, Orlando, FL, USA., Lambert B; Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA., Ferrari MJ; Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA., Jit M; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Fu H; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Silal SP; Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa, Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Centre for Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, Oxford University, Oxford, UK., Hounsell RA; Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa, Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Centre for Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, Oxford University, Oxford, UK., White RG; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; TB Modelling Group, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Department, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Mosser JF; University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Gaythorpe KAM; Imperial College London, London, UK., Trotter CL; University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK; Imperial College London, London, UK., Lindstrand A; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland., O'Brien KL; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland., Bar-Zeev N; World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. Electronic address: barzeevn@who.int. |
| المصدر: | Lancet (London, England) [Lancet] 2024 May 25; Vol. 403 (10441), pp. 2307-2316. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 May 02. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article; Historical Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: Elsevier Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 2985213R Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1474-547X (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 01406736 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Lancet Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Publication: 2004- : London : Elsevier Original Publication: London : J. Onwhyn |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Immunization Programs* , Vaccination*/statistics & numerical data , Child Mortality*/trends, Humans ; Infant ; Child, Preschool ; Infant Mortality/trends ; Child ; Global Health ; Infant, Newborn ; Adult ; Adolescent ; History, 20th Century ; Middle Aged ; Models, Statistical ; Public Health ; Young Adult |
| مستخلص: | Background: WHO, as requested by its member states, launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, we sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme's inception. Methods: In this modelling study, we used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. We then used these modelled outcomes to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period. Findings: Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood. Interpretation: Since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save future lives from preventable infectious mortality. Funding: WHO. Competing Interests: Declaration of interests CLT and KAMG assert that their employer, Imperial College, receives funding for the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; and the Wellcome Trust. CLT has received consulting fees from GSK for attending an advisory board meeting on CMV vaccines in May, 2022 and is pro bono Chair of the Scientific Advisory Panel of the Meningitis Research Foundation. HF asserts that her employer, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, receives funding for the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from the Gates Foundation. JFM asserts that his employer, University of Washington, receives grant funding from Gavi and from the Gates Foundation. KB and KMT assert that their organisation Kid Risk holds a cooperative agreement with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and holds grants from the Gates Foundation. MJF asserts that his employer, Penn State University, is a subrecipient of funds from Imperial College London for a grant from Gavi and that he holds grants from the Gates Foundation and the US National Science Foundation. MJ asserts that his employer, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, receives funding from the UK National Institute of Health Research, RCUK; the Gates Foundation; Gavi; the Wellcome Trust; WHO; the European Commission; the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government; and the Task Force for Global Health. RAH and SPS assert that their employer, University of Cape Town, receives grant funding from the African Field Epidemiology Network and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. RGW asserts that he receives funding from the Wellcome Trust (grant numbers 218261/Z/19/Z), National Institutes of Health (1R01AI147321-01, G-202303-69963, and R-202309-71190), European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (RIA208D-2505B), UK Medical Research Council (CCF17-7779 via SET Bloomsbury), UK Economic and Social Research Council (ES/P008011/1), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-004737 and INV-035506), and WHO (2020/985800-0). AL, KLO-B, NB-Z, PL, RCWH, and SYS work for WHO. All other authors declare no competing interests. (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.) |
| References: | Vaccine. 2024 Mar 7;42(7):1424-1434. (PMID: 38326131) BMC Public Health. 2021 Nov 9;21(1):2049. (PMID: 34753437) J Infect Dis. 2022 Oct 17;226(8):1309-1318. (PMID: 35415741) Stat Med. 2019 Sep 20;38(21):4146-4158. (PMID: 31290184) Elife. 2021 Jul 13;10:. (PMID: 34253291) Lancet Glob Health. 2023 Apr;11(4):e546-e555. (PMID: 36925175) BMC Med. 2015 Sep 03;13:209. (PMID: 26335923) Lancet. 2020 Feb 22;395(10224):575-590. (PMID: 32007141) Public Health Rep. 2014;129 Suppl 3:7-8. (PMID: 25100885) Vaccine. 2023 Aug 1;:. (PMID: 37537094) Vaccine. 2015 Mar 3;33(10):1291-6. (PMID: 25541214) |
| معلومات مُعتمدة: | 001 International WHO_ World Health Organization |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20240505 Date Completed: 20240525 Latest Revision: 20240607 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240607 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC11140691 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00850-X |
| PMID: | 38705159 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
Full Text via ClinicalKey 
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 1474-547X |
|---|---|
| DOI: | 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00850-X |