دورية أكاديمية
Predicting the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil: a modeling study.
| العنوان: | Predicting the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil: a modeling study. |
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| المؤلفون: | Moreira PVL; Department of Nutrition, Federal University of Paraiba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil., de Arruda Neta ADCP; Department of Nutrition, Federal University of Paraiba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil., Ferreira FELL; Department of Nutrition, Federal University of Paraiba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil., de Araújo JM; Department of Economy, Federal University of Paraiba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil., Rodrigues REA; Department of Economy, Federal University of Paraiba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil., de Lima RLFC; Department of Nutrition, Federal University of Paraiba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil., Vianna RPT; Department of Nutrition, Federal University of Paraiba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil., da Silva Neto JM; Technical School of Health of the Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil., O'Flaherty M; Department of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom. |
| المصدر: | Frontiers in public health [Front Public Health] 2024 May 02; Vol. 12, pp. 1275167. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 May 02 (Print Publication: 2024). |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: Frontiers Editorial Office Country of Publication: Switzerland NLM ID: 101616579 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2296-2565 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 22962565 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Front Public Health Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: Lausanne : Frontiers Editorial Office |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2*/epidemiology , Obesity*/epidemiology, Humans ; Brazil/epidemiology ; Male ; Female ; Prevalence ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Smoking/epidemiology ; Forecasting ; Markov Chains ; Risk Factors |
| مستخلص: | Aims: We adopted a modeling approach to predict the likely future prevalence of type 2 diabetes, taking into account demographic changes and trends in obesity and smoking in Brazil. We then used the model to estimate the likely future impact of different policy scenarios, such as policies to reduce obesity. Methods: The IMPACT TYPE 2 DIABETES model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity, and smoking trends to estimate future type 2 diabetes prevalence. We developed a model for the Brazilian population from 2006 to 2036. Data on the Brazilian population in relation to sex and age were collected from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, and data on the prevalence of type 2 diabetes, obesity, and smoking were collected from the Surveillance of Risk and Protection Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey (VIGITEL). Results: The observed prevalence of type 2 diabetes among Brazilians aged over 25 years was 10.8% (5.2-14.3%) in 2006, increasing to 13.7% (6.9-18.4%) in 2020. Between 2006 and 2020, the observed prevalence in men increased from 11.0 to 19.1% and women from 10.6 to 21.3%. The model forecasts a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2036 (27.0% overall, 17.1% in men and 35.9% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declines by 1% per year from 2020 to 2036 (Scenario 1), the prevalence of diabetes decreases from 26.3 to 23.7, which represents approximately a 10.0% drop in 16 years. If obesity declined by 5% per year in 16 years as an optimistic target (Scenario 2), the prevalence of diabetes decreased from 26.3 to 21.2, representing a 19.4% drop in diabetes prevalence. Conclusion: The model predicts an increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil. Even with ambitious targets to reduce obesity prevalence, type 2 diabetes in Brazil will continue to have a large impact on Brazilian public health. Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. (Copyright © 2024 Moreira, de Arruda Neta, Ferreira, de Araújo, Rodrigues, Lima, Vianna, Silva Neto and O’Flaherty.) |
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| فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: demographic changes; modeling; obesity trends; projection; target strategies; type 2 diabetes prevalence |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20240517 Date Completed: 20240517 Latest Revision: 20240518 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240518 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC11096587 |
| DOI: | 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1275167 |
| PMID: | 38756893 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 2296-2565 |
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| DOI: | 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1275167 |