دورية أكاديمية
Human movement and environmental barriers shape the emergence of dengue.
| العنوان: | Human movement and environmental barriers shape the emergence of dengue. |
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| المؤلفون: | Harish V; Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.; Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Toronto, ON, Canada., Colón-González FJ; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Moreira FRR; Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics and Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.; Departamento de Genética, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil., Gibb R; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.; Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK., Kraemer MUG; Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Davis M; BlueDot, Toronto, ON, Canada., Reiner RC Jr; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Pigott DM; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Perkins TA; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.; Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA., Weiss DJ; Geospatial Health and Development, Telethon Kids Institute, Nedlands, WA, Australia.; Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia., Bogoch II; Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.; Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, ON, Canada., Vazquez-Prokopec G; Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA., Saide PM; Autonomous University of Yucatan, Merida, YUC, Mexico., Barbosa GL; Pasteur Institute, State Secretary of Health of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil., Sabino EC; Institute of Tropical Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil., Khan K; Temerty Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.; BlueDot, Toronto, ON, Canada.; Division of Infectious Diseases, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada., Faria NR; Departamento de Genética, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.; Institute of Tropical Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil., Hay SI; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.; Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Correa-Morales F; Centro Nacional de Programas Preventivos y Control de Enfermedades (CENAPRECE) Secretaria de Salud Mexico, Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico., Chiaravalloti-Neto F; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil., Brady OJ; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. oliver.brady@lshtm.ac.uk.; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. oliver.brady@lshtm.ac.uk.; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. oliver.brady@lshtm.ac.uk. |
| المصدر: | Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2024 May 28; Vol. 15 (1), pp. 4205. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 May 28. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: Nature Pub. Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101528555 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2041-1723 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20411723 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Nat Commun Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: [London] : Nature Pub. Group |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Dengue*/epidemiology , Dengue*/transmission , Dengue*/virology, Humans ; Brazil/epidemiology ; Mexico/epidemiology ; Animals ; Dengue Virus/physiology ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/virology ; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/transmission ; Environment ; Human Migration ; Aedes/virology |
| مستخلص: | Understanding how emerging infectious diseases spread within and between countries is essential to contain future pandemics. Spread to new areas requires connectivity between one or more sources and a suitable local environment, but how these two factors interact at different stages of disease emergence remains largely unknown. Further, no analytical framework exists to examine their roles. Here we develop a dynamic modelling approach for infectious diseases that explicitly models both connectivity via human movement and environmental suitability interactions. We apply it to better understand recently observed (1995-2019) patterns as well as predict past unobserved (1983-2000) and future (2020-2039) spread of dengue in Mexico and Brazil. We find that these models can accurately reconstruct long-term spread pathways, determine historical origins, and identify specific routes of invasion. We find early dengue invasion is more heavily influenced by environmental factors, resulting in patchy non-contiguous spread, while short and long-distance connectivity becomes more important in later stages. Our results have immediate practical applications for forecasting and containing the spread of dengue and emergence of new serotypes. Given current and future trends in human mobility, climate, and zoonotic spillover, understanding the interplay between connectivity and environmental suitability will be increasingly necessary to contain emerging and re-emerging pathogens. (© 2024. The Author(s).) |
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| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20240528 Date Completed: 20240528 Latest Revision: 20240531 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240531 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC11133396 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-024-48465-0 |
| PMID: | 38806460 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
Find this article in full text from Springer Verlag. 
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 2041-1723 |
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| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-024-48465-0 |