دورية أكاديمية
Re-assessing thermal response of schistosomiasis transmission risk: evidence for a higher thermal optimum than previously predicted.
| العنوان: | Re-assessing thermal response of schistosomiasis transmission risk: evidence for a higher thermal optimum than previously predicted. |
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| المؤلفون: | Aslan IH; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.; Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, USA., Pourtois JD; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.; Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, USA., Chamberlin AJ; Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, USA., Mitchell KR; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.; Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, USA., Mari L; Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy., Lwiza KM; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Stony Brook University, New York, NY, USA., Wood CL; School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Mordecai EA; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Yu A; Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Tuan R; Pasteur Institute, São Paulo Health Public Office, São Paulo, SP, Brazil., Palasio RGS; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil., Monteiro AMV; National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, SP, Brazil., Kirk D; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Athni TS; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.; Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA., Sokolow SH; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., N'Goran EK; Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny, 22 BP 770, Abidjan 22, Côte d'Ivoire., Diakite NR; Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny, 22 BP 770, Abidjan 22, Côte d'Ivoire., Ouattara M; Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny, 22 BP 770, Abidjan 22, Côte d'Ivoire., Gatto M; Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy., Casagrandi R; Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy., Little DC; Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK., Ozretich RW; Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK., Norman R; Computing Science and Mathematics, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK., Allan F; Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, UK., Brierley AS; Scottish Oceans Institute, School of Biology, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, UK., Liu P; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Stony Brook University, New York, NY, USA., Pereira TA; Institute for Stem Cell Biology and Regenerative Medicine, School of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., De Leo GA; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.; Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, USA. |
| المصدر: | MedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences [medRxiv] 2024 May 21. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 May 21. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article; Preprint |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101767986 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet NLM ISO Abbreviation: medRxiv Subsets: PubMed not MEDLINE |
| مستخلص: | The geographical range of schistosomiasis is affected by the ecology of schistosome parasites and their obligate host snails, including their response to temperature. Previous models predicted schistosomiasis' thermal optimum at 21.7 °C, which is not compatible with the temperature in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) regions where schistosomiasis is hyperendemic. We performed an extensive literature search for empirical data on the effect of temperature on physiological and epidemiological parameters regulating the free-living stages of S. mansoni and S. haematobium and their obligate host snails, i.e., Biomphalaria spp. and Bulinus spp., respectively. We derived nonlinear thermal responses fitted on these data to parameterize a mechanistic, process-based model of schistosomiasis. We then re-cast the basic reproduction number and the prevalence of schistosome infection as functions of temperature. We found that the thermal optima for transmission of S. mansoni and S. haematobium range between 23.1-27.3 °C and 23.6-27.9 °C (95 % CI) respectively. We also found that the thermal optimum shifts toward higher temperatures as the human water contact rate increases with temperature. Our findings align with an extensive dataset of schistosomiasis prevalence in SSA. The refined nonlinear thermal-response model developed here suggests a more suitable current climate and a greater risk of increased transmission with future warming for more than half of the schistosomiasis suitable regions with mean annual temperature below the thermal optimum. Competing Interests: Conflicts of Interest: “The authors declare no conflict of interest.” |
| التعليقات: | Update in: PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2024 Jun 10;18(6):e0011836. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011836. (PMID: 38857289) |
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| معلومات مُعتمدة: | R01 AI102918 United States AI NIAID NIH HHS; R01 AI168097 United States AI NIAID NIH HHS; R35 GM133439 United States GM NIGMS NIH HHS; T32 GM144273 United States GM NIGMS NIH HHS |
| فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Climate Change; Mechanistic models; Schistosomiasis; Thermal response |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20240603 Latest Revision: 20240626 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240626 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC11142288 |
| DOI: | 10.1101/2024.01.04.24300851 |
| PMID: | 38826336 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
| DOI: | 10.1101/2024.01.04.24300851 |
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