دورية أكاديمية
Impact of vaccine coverage and disruption to health services on COVID-19 in Ukraine.
| العنوان: | Impact of vaccine coverage and disruption to health services on COVID-19 in Ukraine. |
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| المؤلفون: | Costantino V; The Biosecurity Program, The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, High street, Kensington, Sydney, Australia. vale.cost@protonmail.com., MacIntyre CR; The Biosecurity Program, The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, High street, Kensington, Sydney, Australia.; College of Health Solutions, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA.; Watts College of Public Affairs and Community Solutions, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA. |
| المصدر: | Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2024 Jun 26; Vol. 14 (1), pp. 14729. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jun 26. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101563288 Publication Model: Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 2045-2322 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 20452322 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Sci Rep Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: London : Nature Publishing Group, copyright 2011- |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | COVID-19*/prevention & control , COVID-19*/epidemiology , COVID-19 Vaccines*/administration & dosage , Vaccination Coverage*/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2*/immunology, Ukraine/epidemiology ; Humans ; Masks ; Vaccination/statistics & numerical data |
| مستخلص: | COVID-19 surveillance in Ukraine ceased after the Russian invasion of the country in 2022, on a background of low vaccination rates of 34.5% for two doses at this time. We conducted a modelling study to estimate the epidemic trajectory of SARS-COV-2 in Ukraine after the start of the war. We use a COVID-19 deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model for Ukraine to estimate the impact of increased vaccination coverage and masking as public health interventions. We fit the model output to case notification data between 6 January and 25 February 2022, then we forecast the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory in different scenarios of mask use and vaccine coverage. In the best-case scenario, 69% of the Ukrainian population would have been infected in the first half of 2022. Increasing mask use from 50 to 80% reduces cases and deaths by 17% and 30% respectively, while increasing vaccination rates to 60% and 9.6% for two and three doses respectively results in a 3% reduction in cases and 28% in deaths. However, if vaccination is increased to a higher coverage of 80% with two doses and 12.8% with three, or mask effectiveness is reduced to 40%, increasing vaccination coverage is more effective. The loss of health services, displacement, and destruction of infrastructure will amplify the risk of COVID-19 in Ukraine and make vaccine programs less feasible. Masks do not need the health infrastructure or cold-chain logistics required for vaccines and are more feasible for rapid epidemic control during war. However, increasing vaccine coverage will save more lives. Vaccination of refugees who have fled to other countries can be more feasibly achieved. (© 2024. The Author(s).) |
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| معلومات مُعتمدة: | 1137582 National Health and Medical Research Council |
| فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: Coronavirus; Infectious diseases; Modelling; Outbreak response; Ukraine, Masks; Vaccination |
| المشرفين على المادة: | 0 (COVID-19 Vaccines) |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20240626 Date Completed: 20240626 Latest Revision: 20240629 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240629 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC11208616 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-024-57447-7 |
| PMID: | 38926448 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
Find this article in full text from Springer Verlag. 
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 2045-2322 |
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| DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-024-57447-7 |