دورية أكاديمية
Repetition in social contacts: implications in modelling the transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in pre-pandemic and pandemic settings.
| العنوان: | Repetition in social contacts: implications in modelling the transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in pre-pandemic and pandemic settings. |
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| المؤلفون: | Loedy N; Data Science Institute, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium., Wallinga J; Center for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Blithoven, The Netherlands.; Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands., Hens N; Data Science Institute, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium.; Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium., Torneri A; Data Science Institute, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium. |
| المصدر: | Proceedings. Biological sciences [Proc Biol Sci] 2024 Aug; Vol. 291 (2027), pp. 20241296. Date of Electronic Publication: 2024 Jul 24. |
| نوع المنشور: | Journal Article |
| اللغة: | English |
| بيانات الدورية: | Publisher: Royal Society of London Country of Publication: England NLM ID: 101245157 Publication Model: Print-Electronic Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1471-2954 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 09628452 NLM ISO Abbreviation: Proc Biol Sci Subsets: MEDLINE |
| أسماء مطبوعة: | Original Publication: London : Royal Society of London, c1990- |
| مواضيع طبية MeSH: | Respiratory Tract Infections*/transmission , Respiratory Tract Infections*/epidemiology , Pandemics*, Humans ; COVID-19/transmission ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Belgium/epidemiology ; Adult ; Contact Tracing ; Models, Theoretical ; Adolescent ; Child ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Young Adult ; Male ; Child, Preschool ; Female |
| مستخلص: | The spread of viral respiratory infections is intricately linked to human interactions, and this relationship can be characterized and modelled using social contact data. However, many analyses tend to overlook the recurrent nature of these contacts. To bridge this gap, we undertake the task of describing individuals' contact patterns over time by characterizing the interactions made with distinct individuals during a week. Moreover, we gauge the implications of this temporal reconstruction on disease transmission by juxtaposing it with the assumption of random mixing over time. This involves the development of an age-structured individual-based model, using social contact data from a pre-pandemic scenario (the POLYMOD study) and a pandemic setting (the Belgian CoMix study), respectively. We found that accounting for the frequency of contacts impacts the number of new, distinct, contacts, revealing a lower total count than a naive approach, where contact repetition is neglected. As a consequence, failing to account for the repetition of contacts can result in an underestimation of the transmission probability given a contact, potentially leading to inaccurate conclusions when using mathematical models for disease control. We, therefore, underscore the necessity of acknowledging contact repetition when formulating effective public health strategies. |
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| معلومات مُعتمدة: | H2020 European Research Council |
| فهرسة مساهمة: | Keywords: epidemic models; social contact; transmission dynamics |
| تواريخ الأحداث: | Date Created: 20240723 Date Completed: 20240723 Latest Revision: 20240727 |
| رمز التحديث: | 20240727 |
| مُعرف محوري في PubMed: | PMC11265869 |
| DOI: | 10.1098/rspb.2024.1296 |
| PMID: | 39043233 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | MEDLINE |
| تدمد: | 1471-2954 |
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| DOI: | 10.1098/rspb.2024.1296 |