التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
| العنوان: |
Improving accuracy and quantifying uncertainty in flood loss estimations through the use of multi-model ensembles. |
| المؤلفون: |
Figueiredo, Rui, Schröter, Kai, Weiss-Motz, Alexander, Martina, Mario L. V., Kreibich, Heidi |
| المصدر: |
Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences Discussions; 2017, p1-34, 34p |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: |
FLOOD damage, RISK assessment, EMERGENCY management |
| مستخلص: |
Flood loss modelling is a crucial part of risk assessments. However, it is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models available in the literature are deterministic, providing only single point estimates of flood loss, and large disparities tend to exist among them. Adopting any one such model in a risk assessment context is likely to lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. In this paper, we propose the use of multi-model ensembles to address such issues. This approach, which has been applied successfully in other scientific fields, is based on the combination of different model outputs with the aim of improving the skill and usefulness of predictions. Using twenty flood loss models in two test cases, we demonstrate that multi-model ensembles can be a simple and pragmatic way to consistently obtain more accurate flood loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty. We also discuss how such ensembles can be constructed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| قاعدة البيانات: |
Complementary Index |
