التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
| العنوان: |
Analyzing Trade Growth Effects of Deviations from Long-run Economic Growth. |
| المؤلفون: |
Naanwaab, Cephas B., Edwards, Je-frey A. |
| المصدر: |
Global Economy Journal; Dec2017, Vol. 17 Issue 4, p1-11, 11p, 4 Charts, 1 Graph |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: |
ECONOMIC development, COMMERCE, GROSS domestic product, EMPIRICAL research, HIGH-income countries |
| مستخلص: |
This paper explores the relationship between trade growth and long-run trends in real GDP growth from a purely empirical perspective. Its novelty lies in the way that it models trade growth: as a function of cyclical trends in real GDP growth. The main finding is that trade growth responds asymmetrically to deviations from long-run GDP growth. Generally, trade growth is positive and statistically significant when GDP growth is above the long-run trend. On the other hand, trade growth ceases but does not become negative when GDP growth falls below its long-run trend. While this behavior holds true broadly, individual countries' trade growth may respond differently when GDP growth is above or below trend. Comparatively, low-income countries' trade growth takes the greatest hit when economic growth slows, while lower-middle and high-income countries are least affected. These findings have potential implications for trade policy-making in the twentyfirst Century especially given the current atmosphere of anti-globalization and slow trade growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| قاعدة البيانات: |
Complementary Index |
