التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
| العنوان: |
Development and evaluation of a predictive nomogram for survival in heat stroke patients: a retrospective cohort study. |
| المؤلفون: |
Fei Shao, Xian Shi, Shu-hua Huo, Qing-yu Liu, Ji-xue Shi, Jian Kang, Ping Gong, Sheng-tao Yan, Guo-xing Wang, Li-jie Qin, Fei Wang, Ke Feng, Feng-ying Chen, Yong-jie Yin, Tao Ma, Yan Li, Yang Wu, Hao Cui, Chang-xiao Yu, Song Yang |
| المصدر: |
World Journal of Emergency Medicine; 2022, Vol. 13 Issue 5, p355-360, 6p |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: |
HEAT stroke, NOMOGRAPHY (Mathematics), LEUKOCYTE count, STROKE patients, COHORT analysis |
| مصطلحات جغرافية: |
CHINA |
| مستخلص: |
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to establish an effective nomogram to predict the survival of heat stroke (HS) based on risk factors. METHODS: This was a retrospective, observational multicenter cohort study. We analyzed patients diagnosed with HS, who were treated between May 1 and September 30, 2018 at 15 tertiary hospitals from 11 cities in Northern China. RESULTS: Among the 175 patients, 32 patients (18.29%) died before hospital discharge. After the univariate analysis, mechanical ventilation, initial mean arterial pressure <70 mmHg, maximum heart rate, lab results on day 1 (white blood cell count, alanine aminotransferase, creatinine), and Glasgow admission prediction score were included in multivariate analysis. Multivariate Cox regression showed that invasive ventilation, initial mean arterial pressure <70 mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa), and Glasgow admission prediction score were independent risk factors for HS. The nomogram was established for predicting 7-d and 14-d survival in the training cohort. The nomogram exhibited a concordance index (C-index) of 0.880 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.831-0.930) by bootstrapping validation (B=1,000). Furthermore, the nomogram performed better when predicting 14-d survival, compared to 7-d survival. The prognostic index cut-off value was set at 2.085, according to the operating characteristic curve for overall survival prediction. The model showed good calibration ability in the internal and external validation datasets. CONCLUSION: A novel nomogram, integrated with prognostic factors, was proposed; it was highly predictive of the survival in HS patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| قاعدة البيانات: |
Complementary Index |
