التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
| العنوان: |
A discussion of current crime forecasting indices and an improvement to the prediction efficiency index for applications. |
| المؤلفون: |
White, Veronica M., Hunt, Joel, Green, Brannon |
| المصدر: |
Security Journal; Mar2024, Vol. 37 Issue 1, p47-64, 18p |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: |
CRIME forecasting, FORECASTING, RESOURCE allocation, CRIME analysis |
| مستخلص: |
Hot-spot maps regularly aid many policing resource allocation decisions in today's data-driven age. However, it is unclear what forecasting algorithm(s) should be used to create these maps. To address this gap, we must be able to assess how "good" a generated hot-spot map is. Currently, four main metrics are used for evaluation: the prediction accuracy index (PAI), the recapture rate index (RRI), the prediction efficiency index (PEI), and the prediction efficiency index* (PEI*). This article discusses PAI, RRI, and PEI's strengths and weaknesses, articulates and justifies PEI*, and demonstrates the differences in calculations and interpretations of each metric. We argue that PEI* measures the efficiency of a crime forecasting algorithm while being operationally realistic and should be used in conjunction with other appropriate measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| قاعدة البيانات: |
Complementary Index |
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