التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
| العنوان: |
Expanding Influence of Atlantic and Pacific Ocean Heat Transport on Winter Sea‐Ice Variability in a Warming Arctic. |
| المؤلفون: |
Dörr, Jakob, Årthun, Marius, Eldevik, Tor, Sandø, Anne Britt |
| المصدر: |
Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans; Feb2024, Vol. 129 Issue 2, p1-19, 19p |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: |
SEA ice, OCEAN, ATMOSPHERIC models, WINTER, GLOBAL warming, STRAITS |
| مصطلحات جغرافية: |
ARCTIC regions |
| مستخلص: |
The gradual anthropogenic‐driven retreat of Arctic sea ice is overlaid by large natural (internal) year‐to‐year variability. In winter, sea‐ice loss and variability are currently most pronounced in the Barents Sea. As the loss of winter sea ice continues in a warming world, other regions will experience increased sea‐ice variability. In this study, we investigate to what extent this increased winter sea‐ice variability in the future is connected to ocean heat transport (OHT). We analyze and contrast the present and future link between Pacific and Atlantic OHT and the winter Arctic sea‐ice cover using simulations from seven single‐model large ensembles. We find strong model agreement for a poleward expanding impact of OHT through the Bering Strait and the Barents Sea under continued sea‐ice retreat. Model differences on the Atlantic side can be explained by the differences in the simulated variance of the Atlantic inflows. Model differences on the Pacific side can be explained by differences in the simulated strength of Pacific Water inflows, and upper‐ocean stratification and vertical mixing on the Chukchi shelf. Our work highlights the increasing importance of the Pacific and Atlantic water inflows to the Arctic Ocean and highlights which factors are important to correctly simulate in order to capture the changing impact of OHT in the warming Arctic. Plain Language Summary: The winter sea‐ice cover in the Arctic is retreating with global warming, but with a lot of variability from year to year. Some of this variability is determined by how much oceanic heat is transported into the Arctic Ocean via the Fram Strait, Barents Sea, and Bering Strait. We explore how this link between oceanic heat transport and sea ice will change in the future when the sea ice retreats further into the Arctic Ocean. We compare several climate models and find that most of them show a northward expanding footprint of heat transport through the Barents Sea and the Bering Strait. How much these oceanic transports still affect the future sea ice depends on far the sea ice retreats, changes in the inflowing waters, and the vertical stability of the upper layer in the Arctic Ocean. Key Points: Future climate model projections show a poleward shifted impact of Atlantic and Pacific Ocean heat transport on winter sea‐ice variabilityModels with a larger variance of Atlantic inflows simulate a larger influence of Atlantic heat transport on sea iceModels with a stronger volume transport and downstream stratification simulate a larger influence of Pacific heat transport on sea ice [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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