التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
| العنوان: |
Combining models to generate a consensus effective reproduction number R for the COVID-19 epidemic status in England. |
| المؤلفون: |
Manley, Harrison, Park, Josie, Bevan, Luke, Sanchez-Marroquin, Alberto, Danelian, Gabriel, Bayley, Thomas, Bowman, Veronica, Maishman, Thomas, Finnie, Thomas, Charlett, André, Watkins, Nicholas A, Hutchinson, Johanna, Medley, Graham, Riley, Steven, Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina |
| المصدر: |
Epidemiology & Infection; 2024, Vol. 152, p1-12, 12p |
| مستخلص: |
The effective reproduction number $ R $ was widely accepted as a key indicator during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the UK, the $ R $ value published on the UK Government Dashboard has been generated as a combined value from an ensemble of epidemiological models via a collaborative initiative between academia and government. In this paper, we outline this collaborative modelling approach and illustrate how, by using an established combination method, a combined $ R $ estimate can be generated from an ensemble of epidemiological models. We analyse the $ R $ values calculated for the period between April 2021 and December 2021, to show that this $ R $ is robust to different model weighting methods and ensemble sizes and that using heterogeneous data sources for validation increases its robustness and reduces the biases and limitations associated with a single source of data. We discuss how $ R $ can be generated from different data sources and show that it is a good summary indicator of the current dynamics in an epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| قاعدة البيانات: |
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