التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
| العنوان: |
Summer Convective Precipitation Changes Over the Great Lakes Region Under a Warming Scenario. |
| المؤلفون: |
Yang, Zhao, Wang, Jiali, Qian, Yun, Chakraborty, TC, Xue, Pengfei, Pringle, William J., Huang, Chenfu, Kayastha, Miraj Bhakta, Huang, Huilin, Li, Jianfeng, Hetland, Robert |
| المصدر: |
Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres; 7/28/2024, Vol. 129 Issue 14, p1-20, 20p |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: |
MESOSCALE convective complexes, HUMIDITY, ATMOSPHERIC temperature, FREE convection, NATURAL heat convection |
| مستخلص: |
To understand future summer precipitation changes over the Great Lakes Region (GLR), we performed an ensemble of regional climate simulations through the Pseudo‐Global Warming (PGW) approach. We found that different types of convective precipitation respond differently to the PGW signal. Isolated deep convection (IDC), usually concentrated in the southern domain, shows an increase in precipitation to the north of the GLR. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), usually concentrated upwind of the GLR, shift to the downwind region with increased precipitation. Thermodynamic variables such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition energy (CIN) are found to increase across almost the entire studied domain, creating a potential environment more favorable for stronger convection systems and less favorable for weaker ones. Meanwhile, changes in the lifting condensation level (LCL) and level of free convection (LFC) show a strong correlation with variations in convective precipitation, highlighting the significance of these thermodynamic factors in controlling precipitation over the domain. Our results indicate that the decrease in LCL and LCF in areas with increased convective precipitation is mainly due to increased atmospheric moisture. In response to the prescribed warming perturbation, MCSs occur more frequently downwind, while localized IDCs exhibit more intense rain rates, longer durations, and larger rainfall area. Plain Language Summary: To understand how summer rainfall might change in the Great Lakes Region in a warmer future climate, we performed several climate simulations using the Pseudo‐Global Warming approach. We found that different types of heavy rain events react differently to the warming signal. Smaller convective rain events are projected to increase mainly over the northern domain, whereas the larger and sustained rain events are expected to increase over the eastern domain. The increase in rainfall is associated with low‐level atmospheric moisture, which influences the atmospheric stability. With more moisture, the atmosphere becomes more unstable, leading to increased rainfall. The Great Lakes play an important role in providing moisture to their downwind regions, thereby affecting precipitation patterns. Key Points: The location of summer convective precipitation is shifted due to global warmingChanges in lifting condensation level (LCL) and level of free convection (LFC) are the critical factors driving changes in convective precipitationThe lowered LCL and LFC are controlled by the low‐level moisture, not by air temperature [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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