Numerical hydrodynamic modeling provides quantitative understanding of how physical alterations of an estuary may alter the waterbody hydrodynamics and the rate of mixing with the ocean. In this study, a three dimensional hydrodynamic model (CH3D) was used to compare simulated salinities between the existing condition and five historical cases representing varying physical alterations of the Caloosahatchee Estuary involving (1) removal of the headwater structure (S-79); (2) removal of the downstream causeway to Sanibel Island; (3) backfilling an oyster bar near the estuary month; (4) refilling the navigation channel; and (5) the pre-development bathymetric condition. The results suggested that some alterations including the Sanibel Causeway, backfilling the oyster bar and the S-79 structure may have some local effects but did not change estuarine salinity structure significantly. Refilling the navigation channel had a more profound effect, resulting in a dry season salinity reduction of about 5 when compared with the existing condition. The reduced salt transport was more pronounced with the pre-development bathymetry because the estuary as a whole was much shallower than today. The significant system-wide increase in salt transport caused by the historic dredging of the navigation channel in the Caloosahatchee Estuary has significant implications in the development of attainable environmental flow targets for protecting the estuarine ecosystem.
