Potential changes in monthly fire risk in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under future climate change
| العنوان: | Potential changes in monthly fire risk in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under future climate change |
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| المؤلفون: | Mike D. Flannigan, Yves Bergeron, Héloïse Le Goff |
| المصدر: | Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 39:2369-2380 |
| بيانات النشر: | Canadian Science Publishing, 2009. |
| سنة النشر: | 2009 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Global and Planetary Change, Fire weather, Geography, Ecology, Forest management, Taiga, Climate change, Forestry, Future climate, Fire risk, Fire hazard |
| الوصف: | The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973-2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961-2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961-2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975-2005, 2030- 2060, and 2070-2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (-20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management. Resume´ : Le principal objectif de cet article est d'evaluer si les changements climatiques futurs vont conduire a une aug- mentation de l'activitedes feux dans la region de Waswanipi, dans le centre du Quebec. Tout d'abord, nous avons utilise ´ des regressions lineaires pour modeliser la relation historique (1973-2002) entre les conditions meteorologiques et l'ac- tivitedes feux. Ensuite, nous avons calculeles composantes du systeme de l'Indice Fore ˆ-Meteoapartir des simulations quotidiennes des conditions meteorologiques du Modele Regional Canadien du Climat pour le scenario A2 de changements climatiques (1961-2100). Nous avons testeles tendances lineaires de l'activitedes feux sur la periode 1961-2100, et cal- culeles taux de changement entre 1975-2005, 2030-2060, et 2070-2100. Nos resultats suggerent que le risque de feu du mois d'aout pourrait doubler (+110 %) d'ici 2100 alors que celui du mois de mai pourrait diminuer (-20 %). Ainsi, le pic saisonnier de l'activitedes feux pourrait survenir plus tard dans la saison. Les changements climatiques futurs pourraient egalement creer des conditions plus favorables aux incendies forestiers, et donc aune legere augmentation de l'activitere ´- gionale des feux (+7 %). Bien que nos resultats suggerent une augmentation along terme de l'activitedes feux, la variabi- liteinterannuelle des feux demeure un defi important pour le developpement d'un amenagement forestier durable. |
| تدمد: | 1208-6037 0045-5067 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::5c22713f11c95d31e326f68d2f12ccec https://doi.org/10.1139/x09-153 |
| حقوق: | CLOSED |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsair.doi...........5c22713f11c95d31e326f68d2f12ccec |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 12086037 00455067 |
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