Ventilation in the deep Gulf of Mexico (GoM), its connection to the North Atlantic, and its susceptibility to changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are investigated by combining observations of radiocarbon and volume transport with a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) General Circulation Model (GCM) ensemble output. Radiocarbon data and multiannual volume transport through the Yucatan Channel suggest deep water residence times ~100 years for the GoM. Comparisons to previous radiocarbon observations suggest that the deep GoM has aged in the recent past, consistent with observed raising temperatures and the CMIP6 GCM simulations. The distribution of radiocarbon indicates a time frame of ~160 years between North Atlantic convection and complete ventilation of the deep GoM. This suggests that aging and warming of GoM deep waters were initiated in the North Atlantic before ~1890 consistent with reported rapid and persistent AMOC weakening since the Little Ice Age.
