Trend Analysis and GARCH Model for COVID-19 National Weekly Confirmed Cases in Nigeria for Abuja and Lagos State
| العنوان: | Trend Analysis and GARCH Model for COVID-19 National Weekly Confirmed Cases in Nigeria for Abuja and Lagos State |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Lawal O O, Nwakuya M T, Biu O E |
| المصدر: | Quarterly Journal of Econometrics Research. 8:1-10 |
| بيانات النشر: | Conscientia Beam, 2022. |
| سنة النشر: | 2022 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | General Engineering |
| الوصف: | The trend analysis and GARCH model for COVID-19 pandemic spread between FCT/Lagos and the National Weekly confirmed pandemic cases were carried out using the statistical software Minitab17 and Gretl. Four models trend behavior were considered, which are linear, quadratic, cubic and quartic trends with respect to R-square value, Adjusted R-square value, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) p-value and the estimated coefficients p-values. In addition, GARCH(0,1),GARCH(1,0) and GARCH(1,1) models were built separately for both FCT/Lagos on the Nigeria National Weekly confirmed pandemic cases; to determine which model has best fit for predicting weekly confirmed cases of COVID-19 pandemic in those areas. The four common information criteria was used to selected the best model, which are the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Schwarz-Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), Hannan-Quinn Information Criteria (HQC) and Likelihood Criteria (LKH).This study established the quadratic trend and GARCH(1,0) as the best model that describes the data sets for FCT. Hence, both models can be used to forecasts the weekly pandemic confirmed cases in these areas. |
| تدمد: | 2411-0523 2518-2536 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::6ebe3b70e4d948f03b3b3043d239e5d2 https://doi.org/10.18488/88.v8i1.2931 |
| حقوق: | OPEN |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsair.doi...........6ebe3b70e4d948f03b3b3043d239e5d2 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 24110523 25182536 |
|---|