Robustness, uncertainties, and emergent constraints in the radiative responses of stratocumulus cloud regimes to future warming
| العنوان: | Robustness, uncertainties, and emergent constraints in the radiative responses of stratocumulus cloud regimes to future warming |
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| المؤلفون: | Mark A. Ringer, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Hideaki Kawai, Mark J. Webb, Masahiro Watanabe, Tokuta Yokohata, Yoko Tsushima, Jason N. S. Cole, Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo, Romain Roehrig, Keith D. Williams |
| المصدر: | Climate Dynamics. 46:3025-3039 |
| بيانات النشر: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2015. |
| سنة النشر: | 2015 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Cloud forcing, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Cloud cover, Perturbation (astronomy), 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Cloud feedback, Overcast, Climatology, Radiative transfer, Environmental science, Climate model, Liquid water path, Astrophysics::Galaxy Astrophysics, Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| الوصف: | Future responses of cloud regimes are analyzed for five CMIP5 models forced with observed SSTs and subject to a patterned SST perturbation. Correlations between cloud properties in the control climate and changes in the warmer climate are investigated for each of a set of cloud regimes defined using a clustering methodology. The only significant (negative) correlation found is in the in-regime net cloud radiative effect for the stratocumulus regime. All models overestimate the in-regime albedo of the stratocumulus regime. Reasons for this bias and its relevance to the future response are investigated. A detailed evaluation of the models’ daily-mean contributions to the albedo from stratocumulus clouds with different cloud cover fractions reveals that all models systematically underestimate the relative occurrence of overcast cases but overestimate those of broken clouds. In the warmer climate the relative occurrence of overcast cases tends to decrease while that of broken clouds increases. This suggests a decrease in the climatological in-regime albedo with increasing temperature (a positive feedback); this is opposite to the feedback suggested by the analysis of the bulk in-regime albedo. Furthermore we find that the inter-model difference in the sign of the in-cloud albedo feedback is consistent with the difference in sign of the in-cloud liquid water path response, and there is a strong positive correlation between the in-regime liquid water path in the control climate and its response to warming. We therefore conclude that further breakdown of the in-regime properties into cloud cover and in-cloud properties is necessary to better understand the behavior of the stratocumulus regime. Since cloud water is a physical property and is independent of a model’s radiative assumptions, it could potentially provide a useful emergent constraint on cloud feedback. |
| تدمد: | 1432-0894 0930-7575 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::6fd255b1887565eb159cf37d10069d66 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2750-7 |
| حقوق: | CLOSED |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsair.doi...........6fd255b1887565eb159cf37d10069d66 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
Find this article in full text from Springer Verlag. | تدمد: | 14320894 09307575 |
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