In a petroleum accumulation system, the source rock plays a significant geological role in controlling hydrocarbon distribution, because it provides the material basis for hydrocarbon accumulation. Thus, quantitative evaluations of source rock control on hydrocarbon distribution are useful for predicting future hydrocarbon discoveries. Using the Huizhou Depression in the Pearl River Mouth Basin, China, as a case study, geostatistical methods and probability calculation were employed to analyze the controlling effect of source rocks. The Huizhou Depression can be divided into five petroleum accumulation systems of which the Huixi contains the largest known amount of hydrocarbons. A probability model of hydrocarbon accumulations is established for quantitative evaluation of potentially favourable hydrocarbon distribution. In each petroleum accumulation system, the larger the hydrocarbon expulsion intensity, the larger the amount of hydrocarbons that accumulates; the longer the distance from the hydrocarbon expulsion centre, the lower the amount of hydrocarbon accumulates. The hydrocarbon distribution limit controlled by the source rock is 3.5 times the radius of the source kitchen in the Huizhou Depression. In the current state of exploration, oil fields in the Huizhou Depression are mainly observed in the areas 1.5 to 2 times the source kitchen radius. Based on the prediction model, structural highs around hydrocarbon source kitchens are potentially favourable zones for structural hydrocarbon reservoirs, and the interiors of source kitchens are potentially targets for subtle hydrocarbon reservoirs and unconventional resources.
