The Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM): Performance for Tropical Rainfall Forecasting and Sensitivity to Convective Scheme and Horizontal Resolution
| العنوان: | The Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM): Performance for Tropical Rainfall Forecasting and Sensitivity to Convective Scheme and Horizontal Resolution |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Saulo R. M. Barros, Celso L. Mendes, Fábio L. R. Diniz, Julio Pablo Reyes Fernandez, Hugh Morrison, Diego Pereira Enoré, Georg Grell, Jairo Panetta, Henrique M. J. Barbosa, Paulo Yoshio Kubota, Débora Souza Alvim, José Paulo Bonatti, Leo Siqueira, Enver Ramirez, Vinicius Buscioli Capistrano, Graziela Luzia, Josiane Silva, Praki Satyamurti, Paulo Nobre, Jayant K. Pendharkar, Silvio Nilo Figueroa, Juliana R. Silva, Iracema F. A. Cavalcanti |
| المصدر: | Repositório Institucional da USP (Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual) Universidade de São Paulo (USP) instacron:USP |
| بيانات النشر: | American Meteorological Society, 2016. |
| سنة النشر: | 2016 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Convection, Horizontal resolution, MATEMÁTICA APLICADA, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Weather forecasting, 02 engineering and technology, Tropical rainfall, Atmospheric model, computer.software_genre, 01 natural sciences, 020801 environmental engineering, Climatology, Environmental science, Tropical cyclone forecast model, Sensitivity (control systems), Precipitation, computer, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| الوصف: | This article describes the main features of the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM), analyses of its performance for tropical rainfall forecasting, and its sensitivity to convective scheme and horizontal resolution. BAM is the new global atmospheric model of the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research [Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC)], which includes a new dynamical core and state-of-the-art parameterization schemes. BAM’s dynamical core incorporates a monotonic two-time-level semi-Lagrangian scheme, which is carried out completely on the model grid for the tridimensional transport of moisture, microphysical prognostic variables, and tracers. The performance of the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from two convective schemes, the Grell–Dévényi (GD) scheme and its modified version (GDM), and two different horizontal resolutions are evaluated against the daily TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis over different tropical regions. Three main results are 1) the QPF skill was improved substantially with GDM in comparison to GD; 2) the increase in the horizontal resolution without any ad hoc tuning improves the variance of precipitation over continents with complex orography, such as Africa and South America, whereas over oceans there are no significant differences; and 3) the systematic errors (dry or wet biases) remain virtually unchanged for 5-day forecasts. Despite improvements in the tropical precipitation forecasts, especially over southeastern Brazil, dry biases over the Amazon and La Plata remain in BAM. Improving the precipitation forecasts over these regions remains a challenge for the future development of the model to be used not only for numerical weather prediction over South America but also for global climate simulations. |
| تدمد: | 1520-0434 0882-8156 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::0885784de8a8e5927552fc7ea5a14b41 https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-16-0062.1 |
| حقوق: | OPEN |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsair.doi.dedup.....0885784de8a8e5927552fc7ea5a14b41 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 15200434 08828156 |
|---|