A mechanistic spatio-temporal modeling of COVID-19 data

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: A mechanistic spatio-temporal modeling of COVID-19 data
المؤلفون: Álvaro Briz‐Redón, Adina Iftimi, Jorge Mateu, Carolina Romero‐García
سنة النشر: 2022
مصطلحات موضوعية: Statistics and Probability, spatio-temporal models, inhomogeneous point processes, first-order intensity function, Infecciones por coronavirus, COVID-19, Enfermedad transmisible, General Medicine, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, mechanistic models, Análisis estadístico
الوصف: Understanding the evolution of an epidemic is essential to implement timely and efficient preventive measures. The availability of epidemiological data at a fine spatio-temporal scale is both novel and highly useful in this regard. Indeed, having geocoded data at the case level opens the door to analyze the spread of the disease on an individual basis, allowing the detection of specific outbreaks or, in general, of some interactions between cases that are not observable if aggregated data are used. Point processes are the natural tool to perform such analyses. We analyze a spatio-temporal point pattern of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases detected in Valencia (Spain) during the first 11 months (February 2020 to January 2021) of the pandemic. In particular, we propose a mechanistic spatiotemporal model for the first-order intensity function of the point process. This model includes separate estimates of the overall temporal and spatial intensities of the model and a spatio-temporal interaction term. For the latter, while similar studies have considered different forms of this term solely based on the physical distances between the events, we have also incorporated mobility data to better capture the characteristics of human populations. The results suggest that there has only been a mild level of spatio-temporal interaction between cases in the study area, which to a large extent corresponds to people living in the same residential location. Extending our proposed model to larger areas could help us gain knowledge on the propagation of COVID-19 across cities with high mobility levels. Innovation, University, Science and Digital Society Council, Valencia Innovation Agency (AVI) 1.715 JCR (2021) Q2, 56/125 Statistics & Probability 0.951 SJR (2021) Q1, 518/2489 Medicine (miscellaneous) No data IDR 2021 UEV
اللغة: English
URL الوصول: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::408505ef82541e84af4ac1bccae8ee30
https://hdl.handle.net/11268/11574
حقوق: OPEN
رقم الأكسشن: edsair.doi.dedup.....408505ef82541e84af4ac1bccae8ee30
قاعدة البيانات: OpenAIRE