Bayesian deep learning based method for probabilistic forecast of day-ahead electricity prices

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Bayesian deep learning based method for probabilistic forecast of day-ahead electricity prices
المؤلفون: Andrea Vitali, Pietro Portolani, Matteo Matteucci, Alessandro Brusaferri
المصدر: Applied energy 250 (2019): 1158–1175. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.05.068
info:cnr-pdr/source/autori:Brusaferri, Alessandro; Matteucci, Matteo; Portolani, Pietro; Vitali, Andrea/titolo:Bayesian deep learning based method for probabilistic forecast of day-ahead electricity prices/doi:10.1016%2Fj.apenergy.2019.05.068/rivista:Applied energy/anno:2019/pagina_da:1158/pagina_a:1175/intervallo_pagine:1158–1175/volume:250
بيانات النشر: Applied Science Publishers; [poi] Elsevier, London ; [poi] Amsterdam, Regno Unito, 2019.
سنة النشر: 2019
مصطلحات موضوعية: Bayesian learning, Deep learning, Electricity price forecasting, Neural network, Probabilistic forecasting, Operations research, Computer science, 020209 energy, 02 engineering and technology, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Bayesian inference, 020401 chemical engineering, Homoscedasticity, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, 0204 chemical engineering, business.industry, Mechanical Engineering, Probabilistic logic, Building and Construction, Bidding, General Energy, Scalability, Artificial intelligence, business
الوصف: The availability of accurate day-ahead energy prices forecasts is crucial to achieve a successful participation to liberalized electricity markets. Moreover, forecasting systems providing prediction intervals and densities (i.e. probabilistic forecasting) are fundamental to enable enhanced bidding and planning strategies considering uncertainty explicitly. Nonetheless, the vast majority of available approaches focus on point forecast. Therefore, we propose a novel methodology for probabilistic energy price forecast based on Bayesian deep learning techniques. A specific training method has been deployed to guarantee scalability to complex network architectures. Moreover, we developed a model originally supporting heteroscedasticity, thus avoiding the common homoscedastic assumption with related preprocessing effort. Experiments have been performed on two day-ahead markets characterized by different behaviors. Then, we demonstrated the capability of the proposed method to achieve robust performances in out-of-sample conditions while providing forecast uncertainty indications.
اللغة: English
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.05.068
URL الوصول: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::6dc777553c51814fcffd858d834a433c
حقوق: OPEN
رقم الأكسشن: edsair.doi.dedup.....6dc777553c51814fcffd858d834a433c
قاعدة البيانات: OpenAIRE
الوصف
DOI:10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.05.068