Analysis of the Worldwide Corona Virus (COVID-19) Pandemic Trend; A Modelling Study to Predict Its Spread

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Analysis of the Worldwide Corona Virus (COVID-19) Pandemic Trend; A Modelling Study to Predict Its Spread
المؤلفون: Minami Yoshida, Muhammad Qasim, Waqas Ahmad, Muhammad Yasir, Maree Gould
بيانات النشر: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, 2020.
سنة النشر: 2020
مصطلحات موضوعية: education.field_of_study, Geography, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Population, Pandemic, Statistics, education
الوصف: ObjectiveThe Coronavirus (COVID-19) has advanced into 197 countries and territories leaving behind a total of 372,757 confirmed cases and 16231 deaths.MethodsOne the basis of WHO situation reports data of COVID-19 along with daily official reports from the Japan, China and the Kore we modelled the spread of COVID19 by using the Successive Approximation Method. We defined the two state of data to find the mean ratio (η) of the present cases count to the sum of previous and present cases. This ratio further predicts the future state of COVID-19 pandemic.ResultsThe mean ratio (η) of expected cases were found 0.485, while the mean ratio for deaths was found to be 0.49. We calculated worldwide expected lower bound value for confirmed cases 247007 cases with maximum limit of 1667719 cases and minimum deaths count 8660 with upper limit of 117397 deaths in next 30 days. While in the case of Iran, a large increase in the number of deaths are expected in the upcoming 30 days with lower bound value of 1140 deaths and maximum value of 598478 deaths.InterpretationIran whole population is on risk.
URL الوصول: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::92e6ae1e8c4c501e1c187a0f6b35be66
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.30.20048215
حقوق: OPEN
رقم الأكسشن: edsair.doi.dedup.....92e6ae1e8c4c501e1c187a0f6b35be66
قاعدة البيانات: OpenAIRE