Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is a distressing and difficult-to-treat complication of wrist fracture. Estimates of the incidence of CRPS after wrist fracture vary greatly. It is not currently possible to identify who will go on to develop CRPS after wrist fracture. In this prospective cohort study, a nearly consecutive sample of 1,549 patients presenting with wrist fracture to 1 of 3 hospital-based fracture clinics and managed nonsurgically was assessed within 1 week of fracture and followed up 4 months later. Established criteria were used to diagnose CRPS. The incidence of CRPS in the 4 months after wrist fracture was 3.8% (95% confidence interval = 2.9-4.8%). A prediction model based on 4 clinical assessments (pain, reaction time, dysynchiria, and swelling) discriminated well between patients who would and would not subsequently develop CRPS (c index.99). A simple assessment of pain intensity (0-10 numerical rating scale) provided nearly the same level of discrimination (c index.98). One in 26 patients develops CRPS within 4 months of nonsurgically managed wrist fracture. A pain score of ≥5 in the first week after fracture should be considered a "red flag" for CRPS. Perspective This study shows that excessive baseline pain in the week after wrist fracture greatly elevates the risk of developing CRPS. Clinicians can consider a rating of greater than 5/10 to the question "What is your average pain over the last 2 days?" to be a "red flag" for CRPS. Refereed/Peer-reviewed
