أعرض في EDS

Residential flood risk in Metro Vancouver due to climate change using probability boxes

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Residential flood risk in Metro Vancouver due to climate change using probability boxes
المؤلفون: Hiva Viseh, David N. Bristow
المصدر: International Journal of River Basin Management. :1-18
بيانات النشر: Informa UK Limited, 2023.
سنة النشر: 2023
مصطلحات موضوعية: Water Science and Technology
الوصف: To enhance the decision-making process and reduce economic losses caused by future flooding, it is critical to quantify uncertainty in each step of flood risk analysis. To address the often-missing uncertainty quantification, we propose a new methodology that combines damage functions and probability bounds analysis. We estimate the likely direct tangible damage to 375,973 residential buildings along the Fraser River through Metro Vancouver, Canada, for a range of climate change driven flood scenarios, while transparently representing the associated uncertainties caused by sampling error, imprecise measurement, and uncertainty in building height and basement conditions. Furthermore, for the purposes of developing effective management strategies, uncertainties in this study are classified into two categories, namely aleatory and epistemic. According to our findings and absent significant action, we should expect an enormous increase in flood damage to the four categories of residential buildings considered in this study by the year 2100. Moreover, the results show that second-order Monte Carlo simulation cannot adequately represent epistemic uncertainty for small sample sizes. In such a case, we recommend employing a probability box to delineate the epistemic uncertainty.
تدمد: 1814-2060
1571-5124
URL الوصول: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::9b630656b2e56f7e3ce03e4f0694d37f
https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2023.2200006
حقوق: OPEN
رقم الأكسشن: edsair.doi.dedup.....9b630656b2e56f7e3ce03e4f0694d37f
قاعدة البيانات: OpenAIRE
الوصف
تدمد:18142060
15715124