Assessing Early Heterogeneity in Doubling Times of the COVID-19 Epidemic across Prefectures in Mainland China, January-February, 2020
| العنوان: | Assessing Early Heterogeneity in Doubling Times of the COVID-19 Epidemic across Prefectures in Mainland China, January-February, 2020 |
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| المؤلفون: | Gerardo Chowell, Po-Ying Lai, Manyun Liu, Xiaolu Zhou, Chi-Hin Cheung, Sylvia K. Ofori, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Chi-Ngai Cheung, Kamalich Muniz-Rodriguez |
| المصدر: | Epidemiologia Volume 2 Issue 1 Pages 9-113 |
| سنة النشر: | 2020 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Mainland China, spatial analysis, 030231 tropical medicine, Population, coronavirus, doubling time, geography, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Linear regression, Doubling time, Cumulative incidence, 030212 general & internal medicine, education, Hu Line, education.field_of_study, SARS-CoV-2, Population size, COVID-19, Metropolitan area, 3. Good health, spatial clustering, Geography, epidemiology, Demography, Arithmetic mean |
| الوصف: | To describe the geographical heterogeneity of COVID-19 across prefectures in mainland China, we estimated doubling times from daily time series of the cumulative case count between 24 January and 24 February 2020. We analyzed the prefecture-level COVID-19 case burden using linear regression models and used the local Moran’s I to test for spatial autocorrelation and clustering. Four hundred prefectures (~98% population) had at least one COVID-19 case and 39 prefectures had zero cases by 24 February 2020. Excluding Wuhan and those prefectures where there was only one case or none, 76 (17.3% of 439) prefectures had an arithmetic mean of the epidemic doubling time < 2 d. Low-population prefectures had a higher per capita cumulative incidence than high-population prefectures during the study period. An increase in population size was associated with a very small reduction in the mean doubling time (−0.012, 95% CI, −0.017, −0.006) where the cumulative case count doubled ≥3 times. Spatial analysis revealed high case count clusters in Hubei and Heilongjiang and fast epidemic growth in several metropolitan areas by mid-February 2020. Prefectures in Hubei and neighboring provinces and several metropolitan areas in coastal and northeastern China experienced rapid growth with cumulative case count doubling multiple times with a small mean doubling time. |
| وصف الملف: | application/pdf |
| تدمد: | 2673-3986 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::ac9ad8188be6969703abbe06ddfb88c5 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36417193 |
| حقوق: | OPEN |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsair.doi.dedup.....ac9ad8188be6969703abbe06ddfb88c5 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 26733986 |
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