Observations and Projections of Heat Waves in South America
| العنوان: | Observations and Projections of Heat Waves in South America |
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| المؤلفون: | Sarah Feron, G. Torres, Raul R. Cordero, V. Asencio, David Laroze, Jose Jorquera, Jorge F. Carrasco, P. J. Llanillo, Fernando Labbe, Alessandro Damiani, Edgardo Sepulveda |
| المصدر: | Scientific Reports, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2019) Scientific Reports |
| بيانات النشر: | Nature Publishing Group, 2019. |
| سنة النشر: | 2019 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | 0301 basic medicine, Coupled model intercomparison project, Multidisciplinary, Equator, Global warming, lcsh:R, lcsh:Medicine, Representative Concentration Pathways, Heat wave, Article, Projection and prediction, 03 medical and health sciences, 030104 developmental biology, 0302 clinical medicine, General Circulation Model, Climatology, Environmental science, Climate model, lcsh:Q, lcsh:Science, Climate and Earth system modelling, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery, Downscaling |
| الوصف: | Although Heat Waves (HWs) are expected to increase due to global warming, they are a regional phenomenon that demands for local analyses. In this paper, we assess four HW metrics (HW duration, HW frequency, HW amplitude, and number of HWs per season) as well as the share of extremely warm days (TX95, according to the 95th percentile) in South America (SA). Our analysis included observations as well as simulations from global and regional models. In particular, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to project both TX95 estimates and HW metrics according to two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that in recent decades the share of extremely warm days has at least doubled over the period December–January–February (DJF) in northern SA; less significant increases have been observed in southern SA. We also found that by midcentury, under the RCP4.5 scenario, extremely warm DJF days (as well as the number of HWs per season) are expected to increase by 5–10 times at locations close to the Equator and in the Atacama Desert. Increases are expected to be less pronounced in southern SA. Projections under the RCP8.5 scenario are more striking, particularly in tropical areas where half or more of the days could be extremely warm by midcentury. |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 2045-2322 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::b2fcf91a26bef870204cb714e83ed8e0 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1038/s41598-019-44614-4 |
| حقوق: | OPEN |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsair.doi.dedup.....b2fcf91a26bef870204cb714e83ed8e0 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 20452322 |
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