Periodic epidemic outbursts explained by local saturation of clusters
| العنوان: | Periodic epidemic outbursts explained by local saturation of clusters |
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| المؤلفون: | Louis Gostiaux, Wouter J. T. Bos, Jean-Pierre Bertoglio |
| المصدر: | Physical Review E. 107 |
| بيانات النشر: | American Physical Society (APS), 2023. |
| سنة النشر: | 2023 |
| الوصف: | Adding the notion of spatial locality to the susceptible-infected-recovered (or SIR) model, allows to capture local saturation of an epidemic. The resulting minimum model of an epidemic, consisting of five ordinary differential equations with constant model coefficients, reproduces slowly decaying periodic outbursts, as observed in the COVID-19 or Spanish flu epidemic. It is shown that if immunity decays, even slowly, the model yields a fully periodic dynamics. |
| تدمد: | 2470-0053 2470-0045 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::b5f8d934686327eb452a7e7d98b5e990 https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.107.l012201 |
| حقوق: | CLOSED |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsair.doi.dedup.....b5f8d934686327eb452a7e7d98b5e990 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 24700053 24700045 |
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