The impact of episodic screening interruption: COVID-19 and population-based cancer screening in Canada
| العنوان: | The impact of episodic screening interruption: COVID-19 and population-based cancer screening in Canada |
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| المؤلفون: | Robert J. Hilsden, Nicolas Iragorri, Martin J. Yaffe, Yibing Ruan, Andrew J. Coldman, Jean He Yong, Claude Nadeau, Abbey E Poirier, James G. Mainprize, Darren R. Brenner |
| المصدر: | Journal of Medical Screening |
| بيانات النشر: | SAGE Publications, 2020. |
| سنة النشر: | 2020 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Male, interruption of screening, Canada, medicine.medical_specialty, 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, mammography screening, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), Breast Neoplasms, Population based, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Pandemic, Cancer screening, medicine, Cancer burden, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Early Detection of Cancer, colo-rectal cancer screening, business.industry, Incidence, Health Policy, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, COVID-19, 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis, Emergency medicine, Female, Original Article, Mammography screening, Colorectal Neoplasms, business |
| الوصف: | Background Population-based cancer screening can reduce cancer burden but was interrupted temporarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the long-term clinical impact of breast and colorectal cancer screening interruptions in Canada using a validated mathematical model. Methods We used the OncoSim breast and colorectal cancers microsimulation models to explore scenarios of primary screening stops for 3, 6, and 12 months followed by 6–24-month transition periods of reduced screening volumes. For breast cancer, we estimated changes in cancer incidence over time, additional advanced-stage cases diagnosed, and excess cancer deaths in 2020–2029. For colorectal cancer, we estimated changes in cancer incidence over time, undiagnosed advanced adenomas and colorectal cancers in 2020, and lifetime excess cancer incidence and deaths. Results Our simulations projected a surge of cancer cases when screening resumes. For breast cancer screening, a three-month interruption could increase cases diagnosed at advanced stages (310 more) and cancer deaths (110 more) in 2020–2029. A six-month interruption could lead to 670 extra advanced cancers and 250 additional cancer deaths. For colorectal cancers, a six-month suspension of primary screening could increase cancer incidence by 2200 cases with 960 more cancer deaths over the lifetime. Longer interruptions, and reduced volumes when screening resumes, would further increase excess cancer deaths. Conclusions Interruptions in cancer screening will lead to additional cancer deaths, additional advanced cancers diagnosed, and a surge in demand for downstream resources when screening resumes. An effective strategy is needed to minimize potential harm to people who missed their screening. |
| تدمد: | 1475-5793 0969-1413 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::c07272fef8c188ef99e12340e3ed9ced https://doi.org/10.1177/0969141320974711 |
| حقوق: | OPEN |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsair.doi.dedup.....c07272fef8c188ef99e12340e3ed9ced |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 14755793 09691413 |
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