Evaluating the efficacy of bivariate extreme modelling approaches for multi-hazard scenarios

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Evaluating the efficacy of bivariate extreme modelling approaches for multi-hazard scenarios
المؤلفون: Aloïs Tilloy, Bruce D. Malamud, Hugo Winter, Amélie Joly-Laugel
المصدر: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 20, Pp 2091-2117 (2020)
سنة النشر: 2020
مصطلحات موضوعية: Hazard (logic), lcsh:GE1-350, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Computer science, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Tail dependence, lcsh:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Bivariate analysis, 01 natural sciences, Synthetic data, lcsh:TD1-1066, Environmental data, lcsh:Geology, 010104 statistics & probability, lcsh:G, Econometrics, Range (statistics), General Earth and Planetary Sciences, 0101 mathematics, Marginal distribution, lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, lcsh:Environmental sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Parametric statistics
الوصف: Modelling multiple hazard interrelations remains a challenge for practitioners. This article primarily focuses on the interrelations between pairs of hazards. The efficacy of six distinct bivariate extreme models is evaluated through their fitting capabilities to 60 synthetic datasets. The properties of the synthetic datasets (marginal distributions, tail dependence structure) are chosen to match bivariate time series of environmental variables. The six models are copulas (one non-parametric, one semi-parametric, four parametric). We build 60 distinct synthetic datasets based on different parameters of log-normal margins and two different copulas. The systematic framework developed contrasts the model strengths (model flexibility) and weaknesses (poorer fits to the data). We find that no one model fits our synthetic data for all parameters but rather a range of models depending on the characteristics of the data. To highlight the benefits of the systematic modelling framework developed, we consider the following environmental data: (i) daily precipitation and maximum wind gusts for 1971 to 2018 in London, UK, and (ii) daily mean temperature and wildfire numbers for 1980 to 2005 in Porto District, Portugal. In both cases there is good agreement in the estimation of bivariate return periods between models selected from the systematic framework developed in this study. Within this framework, we have explored a way to model multi-hazard events and identify the most efficient models for a given set of synthetic data and hazard sets.
وصف الملف: application/pdf
اللغة: English
تدمد: 1684-9981
URL الوصول: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::d7b117a7e4724666dd7314392f2aa953
https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/nhess-2020-28/
حقوق: OPEN
رقم الأكسشن: edsair.doi.dedup.....d7b117a7e4724666dd7314392f2aa953
قاعدة البيانات: OpenAIRE