Comparison of forecast accuracy of Ata and exponential smoothing
| العنوان: | Comparison of forecast accuracy of Ata and exponential smoothing |
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| المؤلفون: | Idil Yavuz, Beyza Cetin |
| المصدر: | J Appl Stat |
| بيانات النشر: | Informa UK Limited, 2020. |
| سنة النشر: | 2020 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Statistics and Probability, 010104 statistics & probability, 021103 operations research, Computer science, Time-Series Analysis, Exponential smoothing, 0211 other engineering and technologies, Econometrics, 02 engineering and technology, 0101 mathematics, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, 01 natural sciences, Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| الوصف: | Forecasting is a crucial step in almost all scientific research and is essential in many areas of industrial, commercial, clinical and economic activity. There are many forecasting methods in the literature; but exponential smoothing stands out due to its simplicity and accuracy. Despite the facts that exponential smoothing is widely used and has been in the literature for a long time, it suffers from some problems that potentially affect the model's forecast accuracy. An alternative forecasting framework, called Ata, was recently proposed to overcome these problems and to provide improved forecasts. In this study, the forecast accuracy of Ata and exponential smoothing will be compared among data sets with no or linear trend. The results of this study are obtained using simulated data sets with different sample sizes, variances. Forecast errors are compared within both short and long term forecasting horizons. The results show that the proposed approach outperforms exponential smoothing for both types of time series data when forecasting the near and distant future. The methods are implemented on the U.S. annualized monthly interest rates for services data and their forecasting performance are also compared for this data set. |
| تدمد: | 1360-0532 0266-4763 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::dcf7c8d499c6523423d208364f26e46f https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2020.1803813 |
| حقوق: | OPEN |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsair.doi.dedup.....dcf7c8d499c6523423d208364f26e46f |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
PDF full text from Publisher | تدمد: | 13600532 02664763 |
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