BUS TRAVEL TIME PREDICTION USING SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES FOR HIGH VARIANCE CONDITIONS
| العنوان: | BUS TRAVEL TIME PREDICTION USING SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES FOR HIGH VARIANCE CONDITIONS |
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| المؤلفون: | Anil Kumar Bachu, Kranthi Kumar Reddy, Lelitha Vanajakshi |
| المصدر: | Transport, Vol 36, Iss 3, Pp 221-234 (2021) Transport; Vol 36 No 3 (2021); 221-234 |
| بيانات النشر: | Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2021. |
| سنة النشر: | 2021 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | bus travel time prediction, TA1001-1280, Artificial neural network, Computer science, business.industry, approximate entropy, Mechanical Engineering, Kalman filter, Variance (accounting), computer.software_genre, Approximate entropy, support vector machines, Regression, Transportation engineering, Support vector machine, high variability, heterogeneous traffic, Automotive Engineering, Global Positioning System, Data mining, Time series, business, computer |
| الوصف: | Real-time bus travel time prediction has been an interesting problem since past decade, especially in India. Popular methods for travel time prediction include time series analysis, regression methods, Kalman filter method and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method. Reported studies using these methods did not consider the high variance situations arising from the varying traffic and weather conditions, which is very common under heterogeneous and lane-less traffic conditions such as the one in India. The aim of the present study is to analyse the variance in bus travel time and predict the travel time accurately under such conditions. Literature shows that Support Vector Machines (SVM) technique is capable of performing well under such conditions and hence is used in this study. In the present study, nu-Support Vector Regression (SVR) using linear kernel function was selected. Two models were developed, namely spatial SVM and temporal SVM, to predict bus travel time. It was observed that in high mean and variance sections, temporal models are performing better than spatial. An algorithm to dynamically choose between the spatial and temporal SVM models, based on the current travel time, was also developed. The unique features of the present study are the traffic system under consideration having high variability and the variables used as input for prediction being obtained from Global Positioning System (GPS) units alone. The adopted scheme was implemented using data collected from GPS fitted public transport buses in Chennai (India). The performance of the proposed method was compared with available methods that were reported under similar traffic conditions and the results showed a clear improvement. |
| وصف الملف: | application/pdf |
| تدمد: | 1648-3480 1648-4142 |
| URL الوصول: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::f99e21022142f83793e6e0051f40b611 https://doi.org/10.3846/transport.2021.15220 |
| حقوق: | OPEN |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsair.doi.dedup.....f99e21022142f83793e6e0051f40b611 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 16483480 16484142 |
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