Objective: To derive a model for the identification of left anterior descending (LAD) coronary artery stenoses predisposed to plaque rupture and thrombosis. Methods: Coronary angiograms of 186 consecutive patients (original sample) with an anterior ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and a recanalized LAD were reconstructed in the three-dimensional space. Culprit lesions were compared with 293 stable LAD coronary stenoses on the same patients. A model for predicting stenoses with a high probability of thrombosis was derived and validated in 50 subsequent patients with STEMI, and 50 patients with stable lesions (validation sample). Results: The majority of culprit lesions occurred between 20 and 40 mm from the LAD ostium, whereas the majority of stable lesions were found in a distance of more than 60 mm (P
