تقرير
The Solar Cycle: A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values
| العنوان: | The Solar Cycle: A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values |
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| المؤلفون: | Du, Z. L. |
| سنة النشر: | 2011 |
| المجموعة: | Astrophysics |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Astrophysics - Solar and Stellar Astrophysics |
| الوصف: | A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values is proposed to predict the maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle from the preceding minimum aa geomagnetic index (aamin). The correlation between lnRm and lnaamin (r = 0.92) is slightly stronger than that between Rm and aamin (r = 0.90). From this method, cycle 24 is predicted to have a peak size of Rm (24) = 81.7(1\pm13.2%). If the suggested error in aa (3 nT) before 1957 is corrected, the correlation coefficient between Rm and aamin (r = 0.94) will be slightly higher, and the peak of cycle 24 is predicted much lower, Rm(24) = 52.5\pm13.1. Therefore, the prediction of Rm based on the relationship between Rm and aamin depends greatly on the accurate measurement of aa. Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Science |
| نوع الوثيقة: | Working Paper |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s10509-011-0906-4 |
| URL الوصول: | http://arxiv.org/abs/1110.5973 |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsarx.1110.5973 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | arXiv |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s10509-011-0906-4 |
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