تقرير
Evaluating undercounts in epidemics: response to Maruotti et al. 2022
| العنوان: | Evaluating undercounts in epidemics: response to Maruotti et al. 2022 |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Li, Michael, Dushoff, Jonathan, Earn, David J. D., Bolker, Benjamin M. |
| سنة النشر: | 2022 |
| المجموعة: | Quantitative Biology Statistics |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, Statistics - Applications |
| الوصف: | Maruotti et al. 2022 used a mark-recapture approach to estimate bounds on the true number of monkeypox infections in various countries. These approaches are fundamentally flawed; it is impossible to estimate undercounting based solely on a single stream of reported cases. Simulations based on a Richards curve for cumulative incidence show that, for reasonable epidemic parameters, the proposed methods estimate bounds on the ascertainment ratio of $\approx 0.2-0.5$ roughly independently of the true ascertainment ratio. These methods should not be used. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | Working Paper |
| URL الوصول: | http://arxiv.org/abs/2209.11334 |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsarx.2209.11334 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | arXiv |
| الوصف غير متاح. |