Exploiting Intraday Decompositions in Realized Volatility Forecasting: A Forecast Reconciliation Approach

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Exploiting Intraday Decompositions in Realized Volatility Forecasting: A Forecast Reconciliation Approach
المؤلفون: Caporin, Massimiliano, Di Fonzo, Tommaso, Girolimetto, Daniele
سنة النشر: 2023
المجموعة: Statistics
مصطلحات موضوعية: Statistics - Methodology, Statistics - Applications
الوصف: We address the construction of Realized Variance (RV) forecasts by exploiting the hierarchical structure implicit in available decompositions of RV. By using data referred to the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and to its constituents we show that exploiting the informative content of hierarchies improves the forecast accuracy. Forecasting performance is evaluated out-of-sample based on the empirical MSE and QLIKE criteria as well as using the Model Confidence Set approach.
نوع الوثيقة: Working Paper
URL الوصول: http://arxiv.org/abs/2306.02952
رقم الأكسشن: edsarx.2306.02952
قاعدة البيانات: arXiv