تقرير
Effectiveness of probabilistic contact tracing in epidemic containment: the role of super-spreaders and transmission paths reconstruction
| العنوان: | Effectiveness of probabilistic contact tracing in epidemic containment: the role of super-spreaders and transmission paths reconstruction |
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| المؤلفون: | Muntoni, A. P., Mazza, F., Braunstein, A., Catania, G., Dall'Asta, L. |
| سنة النشر: | 2023 |
| المجموعة: | Computer Science Condensed Matter Physics (Other) Quantitative Biology |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, Condensed Matter - Statistical Mechanics, Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Physics - Physics and Society |
| الوصف: | The recent COVID-19 pandemic underscores the significance of early-stage non-pharmacological intervention strategies. The widespread use of masks and the systematic implementation of contact tracing strategies provide a potentially equally effective and socially less impactful alternative to more conventional approaches, such as large-scale mobility restrictions. However, manual contact tracing faces strong limitations in accessing the network of contacts, and the scalability of currently implemented protocols for smartphone-based digital contact tracing becomes impractical during the rapid expansion phases of the outbreaks, due to the surge in exposure notifications and associated tests. A substantial improvement in digital contact tracing can be obtained through the integration of probabilistic techniques for risk assessment that can more effectively guide the allocation of new diagnostic tests. In this study, we first quantitatively analyze the diagnostic and social costs associated with these containment measures based on contact tracing, employing three state-of-the-art models of SARS-CoV-2 spreading. Our results suggest that probabilistic techniques allow for more effective mitigation at a lower cost. Secondly, our findings reveal a remarkable efficacy of probabilistic contact-tracing techniques in capturing backward propagations and super-spreading events, relevant features of the diffusion of many pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | Working Paper |
| URL الوصول: | http://arxiv.org/abs/2312.00910 |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsarx.2312.00910 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | arXiv |
| الوصف غير متاح. |