تقرير
Online model error correction with neural networks: application to the Integrated Forecasting System
| العنوان: | Online model error correction with neural networks: application to the Integrated Forecasting System |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Farchi, Alban, Chrust, Marcin, Bocquet, Marc, Bonavita, Massimo |
| سنة النشر: | 2024 |
| المجموعة: | Computer Science Statistics |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Statistics - Machine Learning, Computer Science - Machine Learning |
| الوصف: | In recent years, there has been significant progress in the development of fully data-driven global numerical weather prediction models. These machine learning weather prediction models have their strength, notably accuracy and low computational requirements, but also their weakness: they struggle to represent fundamental dynamical balances, and they are far from being suitable for data assimilation experiments. Hybrid modelling emerges as a promising approach to address these limitations. Hybrid models integrate a physics-based core component with a statistical component, typically a neural network, to enhance prediction capabilities. In this article, we propose to develop a model error correction for the operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts using a neural network. The neural network is initially pre-trained offline using a large dataset of operational analyses and analysis increments. Subsequently, the trained network is integrated into the IFS within the Object-Oriented Prediction System (OOPS) so as to be used in data assimilation and forecast experiments. It is then further trained online using a recently developed variant of weak-constraint 4D-Var. The results show that the pre-trained neural network already provides a reliable model error correction, which translates into reduced forecast errors in many conditions and that the online training further improves the accuracy of the hybrid model in many conditions. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | Working Paper |
| URL الوصول: | http://arxiv.org/abs/2403.03702 |
| رقم الأكسشن: | edsarx.2403.03702 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | arXiv |
| الوصف غير متاح. |