دورية أكاديمية

State Space Models and the Kalman-Filter in Stochastic Claims Reserving: Forecasting, Filtering and Smoothing

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: State Space Models and the Kalman-Filter in Stochastic Claims Reserving: Forecasting, Filtering and Smoothing
المؤلفون: Nataliya Chukhrova, Arne Johannssen
المصدر: Risks, Vol 5, Iss 2, p 30 (2017)
بيانات النشر: MDPI AG, 2017.
سنة النشر: 2017
مصطلحات موضوعية: state space models, alman-filter%22">">alman-filter, stochastic claims reserving, outstanding loss liabilities, ultimate loss, prediction uncertainty, chain ladder method, Insurance, HG8011-9999
الوصف: This paper gives a detailed overview of the current state of research in relation to the use of state space models and the Kalman-filter in the field of stochastic claims reserving. Most of these state space representations are matrix-based, which complicates their applications. Therefore, to facilitate the implementation of state space models in practice, we present a scalar state space model for cumulative payments, which is an extension of the well-known chain ladder (CL) method. The presented model is distribution-free, forms a basis for determining the entire unobservable lower and upper run-off triangles and can easily be applied in practice using the Kalman-filter for prediction, filtering and smoothing of cumulative payments. In addition, the model provides an easy way to find outliers in the data and to determine outlier effects. Finally, an empirical comparison of the scalar state space model, promising prior state space models and some popular stochastic claims reserving methods is performed.
نوع الوثيقة: article
وصف الملف: electronic resource
اللغة: English
تدمد: 2227-9091
Relation: http://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/5/2/30; https://doaj.org/toc/2227-9091
DOI: 10.3390/risks5020030
URL الوصول: https://doaj.org/article/04241a4ed48341c9ab74795ab1a104e4
رقم الأكسشن: edsdoj.04241a4ed48341c9ab74795ab1a104e4
قاعدة البيانات: Directory of Open Access Journals
الوصف
تدمد:22279091
DOI:10.3390/risks5020030